The national economy always acts in a dual capacity - as a life support mechanism for the population living in the relevant territory, and as a link in the global production chain. On the one hand, the international division of labor can be considered as the division of labor between nation-states. At the same time, the national economy is an open system that exchanges goods, services, capital and labor with the outside world to varying degrees and cannot exist without such an exchange. It is an integral part of the global reproductive system. In modern conditions, the deepening of the international division of labor is a simultaneous process of intensification and differentiation of exchange between such links.

TWO ASPECTS OF WORLD ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

The dual understanding of the modern world economy - as a single global production complex and as a set of national economies-has led to the emergence of the so-called geo-economic approach in the economic literature. It involves considering the world economy as a common geo-economic space that can be explored from different angles.

On the one hand, it can be considered in the organizational and economic aspect. In this case, the global technical and economic division of labor, the subjects of which are individual enterprises, comes to the fore. In this context, the key subject of analysis is transnational production chains. Accordingly, in this case, the global system is conceived as a general system of production structures, regardless of their geographical location. From this point of view, there is no fundamental difference between trade and other types of economic interaction within and outside a particular State. Cross-border transactions differ from intra-national ones only in the additional costs that overcoming national barriers requires.

On the other hand, it is possible to interpret the world economy in the commodity-value aspect, considering it as a set of national and regional economies, as a " set... markets united in a finite (closed) system that is in dynamic equilibrium." Accordingly, the global reproduction process is formed from the reproduction processes occurring in each of these farms, and its normal course is conditional on the successful implementation of reproduction in each of them1.

At the same time, when considering the commodity-value structure of the geo-economic structure, we find that enterprises embedded in international production chains operate primarily within the framework of national markets. At the level of the international production chain, the imperative of the enterprise's functioning will be the successful operation of other links in this chain, as well as the structures serving it (credit and financial, transport, logistics, marketing, etc.). At the level of the national economy, the activity of an enterprise is determined by the action of national economic mechanisms that allow it to meet the requirements of the international production chain (that is, to supply products of proper quality at production costs that provide the necessary level of profitability).

These conditions may be disrupted as a result of some endogenous factor operating within the national economy. They may include an increase in the cost of raw materials of national origin, labor, utilities, and the deterioration of credit conditions for the national economy.-

Vyacheslav V. SOKOLOV, Candidate of Economic Sciences (svv7@cbr.ru).

1 See: Kochetov E. G. Globalistics: theory, methodology, practice. Textbook for universities, Moscow, 2002, pp. 242-244.

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The same thing can happen due to exchange rate fluctuations of the national currency for purely internal reasons.

At the same time, the operating conditions of the enterprise may be disrupted by exogenous factors that are formed outside the national economy. Among them are the increase in world market prices for imported raw materials, the deterioration of financing conditions by foreign credit institutions, as well as changes in foreign exchange rates for reasons that are not related to the economy of the country in question. In both cases, if an enterprise fails to perform its functions in the international production chain and generate sustainable profits, this will inevitably affect the national economy.

Such an unfavorable development may result in the disruption of other international production chains. National enterprises that have previously used the products of an enterprise that has fallen out of the production chain for one reason or another will be forced to stop production or look for alternative products. The inevitable reduction in exports in this case will lead to a weakening of the national currency and, consequently, an increase in the cost of imported raw materials and components used by national producers. Rising unemployment will lead to lower consumer demand and jeopardize the profits of other businesses.

REASONS FOR INTEGRATING NATIONAL FARMS

The functioning of international production chains is greatly facilitated by various economic and political measures aimed at facilitating cross-border transactions. These include:

1) reducing customs barriers and regulating the use of protective measures, ensuring predictability of economic policy, etc.;

2) elimination of trade and political barriers between individual countries and development of regional integration; conclusion of free trade agreements and monetary union between geographically distant countries. (In the latter case, we are usually talking about close economic ties between a relatively small country and a powerful, economically developed state, for example, US free trade agreements with Bahrain, Israel, Jordan, Morocco, Oman, Peru or Chile. This also includes agreements between a developed country and one of the major participants in world trade, such as the free trade agreements between the United States and Australia and Singapore.) 2

Global measures contribute to the optimal location of enterprises on a global scale and, accordingly, to the achievement of an optimal technical and economic structure of the geo-economic space. However, they have a rather rigid limiter, which is associated with maintaining the reproduction process in national farms as separate cells of this space. For this purpose, it is necessary to use monetary, budgetary, structural and social policy measures. To the extent that it is necessary to ensure the reproduction process in national farms as cells of a single global reproduction complex, the movement of factors of production and finished products between them is limited. If barriers become obstacles to the further development of production, they must be abandoned, which contributes to the development of regional integration.

As you know, the following classification of integration associations has traditionally been adopted: a free trade zone, which implies the complete or partial elimination of customs barriers between member countries while maintaining freedom of trade policy in relation to third countries; a customs union, within which customs barriers between member countries are eliminated and there is a single external customs tariff; monetary union, when member countries introduce a single currency; economic union, which means a complete merger of national economies.

If a free trade zone or a customs union is established, obstacles within production structures to the movement of goods crossing national borders are partially or completely eliminated. It should be noted that even without the conclusion of such agreements, such barriers can be removed with the introduction of special customs regimes. At the same time

2 See: http://www.export.gov/fta/

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obstacles remain related to currency fluctuations, changes in national taxation, and other economic policies. With the creation of a currency union, the risks associated with changes in exchange rates disappear. At the same time, there are still risks caused by failures of national economic policies in individual states (as is clearly demonstrated by acute budget crises in Greece, Ireland and Portugal). Complete elimination of risks is possible only in an economic union, when the economies of several countries merge into a single supranational economy.

When considering the geo-economic space in the organizational and economic aspect, we see enterprises-modules that are formed in one configuration or another into international production structures, as well as service sector enterprises that provide the environment for their functioning. If we consider the geo-economic space in the commodity-value aspect, we will find a system consisting of interconnected subsystems-national markets, the map of which does not coincide with the political map of the world. Markets can unite more than two states if their territories have developed almost similar economic conditions and there are no barriers to the movement of goods, services, capital and labor between them. In addition, there are still conglomerates of national markets, which, while still maintaining some obstacles among themselves, have significantly facilitated economic relations within the respective associations in comparison with relations with third countries.

ECONOMIC INTEGRATION AND TRADE FLOWS

A theoretical analysis of the impact of integration associations on international trade was carried out in 1950 by the American economist J. R. R. Tolkien. Weiner. His work was devoted to the role of customs unions, but his conclusions, with appropriate clarifications, are also relevant for considering the consequences of the functioning of free trade zones and currency unions. Weiner introduced the concepts of flow-forming (trade-creation) and flow-diverting (trade-diversion) effects of forming integration groupings. According to him, "the initial goal of the customs union and its main consequence, good or bad, is that the sources of supply (goods) move, and the shift can occur both in the direction of sources with lower costs and in the direction of sources with higher costs, depending on the circumstances." However, the source of supply can change in three different ways:

1) If a member country of an integration association, as a result of removing trade barriers, begins to import goods that it did not import at all before. This is because the price of a product is lower when it is imported duty-free than when it is produced domestically. In this case, a flow-forming effect is observed. If we proceed from the classical concept of free trade, then "at least one of the participants should win, both can win, both together should win, and the world as a whole will win; but the world outside the customs union will lose, at least in the short term, and can only win in the long term as a result of a common goal". diffusion of increased prosperity in the territory of the customs union".

2) If a country starts importing goods within the customs union that it previously imported from third countries. After the cancellation of the duty, its price is lower than the goods of other countries, even if the production costs of this product are higher in the partner country of the union than in third countries. As a result, a flow-deflecting effect is observed. In this case, as J. R. R. Tolkien argued, Weiner, following the classical concept of free trade, "at least one of the participants will suffer damage, both together will suffer net damage, and the outside world and the world as a whole will also suffer damage."

3) In the third case, it is possible that a country that has joined the customs union will start importing goods from the partner country that it did not consume at all before, because its production in the country is impossible or unprofitable, and the duty was prohibitive. In this case, there is also a flow-generating effect (although less than in the case of the complete abolition of import duties).3.

FLOW-FORMING AND FLOW-DEFLECTING EFFECTS

Korean economists J.-W. Lee and K. We performed a fundamental analysis of the factors contributing to the appearance of flow-forming and flow-deflecting effects. Their research

3 See: Finer J. The Customs Union Issue. N.Y., L., 1950. P. 42-44.

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they confirmed their initial hypothesis about the presence of "natural trading partners". Such partners are usually countries where trade between them involves low costs. As a rule, these are geographically close countries (having a common land border or located at a relatively short distance from each other), as well as countries that use a common language.

Having studied the development of regional trade agreements between" natural trading partners " in East Asia, the authors came to the conclusion that the conclusion of such agreements gives a large flow-forming and small flow-deflecting effect. Such agreements help to increase not only trade between the participating countries, but also with third countries. At the same time, "some existing and planned regional trade agreements involving East Asian countries provide for interregional grouping of countries that are significantly remote from each other. Regional customs agreements that cover unnatural trading partners cannot fully facilitate trade between participating countries and divert significant trade flows outside the region. " 4
The desire to combine regional integration with the reduction of global trade barriers has given rise to the concept of "open regionalism", defined by Shang-Ching Wei and J. R. R. Tolkien. Frank explains as follows: "The reduction of trade barriers for countries that do not participate in the association is undertaken when the participating countries liberalize mutual trade. The degree of liberalization of imports from countries not participating in the association should not be as high as from the participating countries"5. In order to formalize the concept of "open regionalism", J. Macmillan proposed making it an official WTO doctrine, and to do this, amend Article XXIV of the GATT, which regulates the creation of free trade zones and customs unions. According to it, the creation of such zones should be allowed only in cases where it does not lead to a reduction in the volume of trade between the participating countries and third countries (the"Macmillan criterion"). This proposal has been criticized by Shang-Ching Wei and J. Frankl, who, contrary to the general thesis of J. R. R. Tolkien, Weiner's research has shown that trade associations that reduce trade with third countries can still contribute to an increase in the overall well-being of the world's population.6.Not only free trade zones and customs unions, but also currency unions are analyzed from the point of view of flow-generating and flow-deflecting effects. So, Swedish researchers X. Flam and X. Nordstrom, who studied the impact of the European Monetary Union on trade in the 10 countries that initially joined it, concluded that the introduction of the euro contributed to an increase in trade not only between these states, but also between them and third countries. The researchers explain this by saying that " the removal of currency barriers within the currency union has made each country of the union more attractive as a platform for exporting to other countries. The increased exports from the monetary union to outsider countries can be explained by the increased cross-country fragmentation of production, which became attractive due to the monetary union and thereby increased the competitiveness of the monetary union countries in world markets " 7.

RELATIONSHIP TO THE INTERNATIONAL DIVISION OF LABOR

The formal approach to the idea of economic integration, which is reduced to a quantitative assessment of the flow-forming and flow-deflecting effect of integration associations, was criticized by Yu. Shishkovym. He believes that such an approach " blurs or overlaps other areas of research on international integration, depriving them of the depth and fundamental nature that this historical phenomenon deserves." In the practice of international organizations, integration is "often identified with the formation of regional trade blocs", regardless of how much the real interaction of the economies of their member countries is deepening.8
Yu. Shishkov defends the need to focus in the study on the content side of integration, " on the patterns of inter-industry and intra-industry division of labor, on the processes of international interweaving of capital

Jong-Wha Lee, Kwanho Shin. 4 Does Regionalism Lead to More Global Trade Integration in East Asia? 2005. P. 25-26.

Shang-Jin Wei, Frankel J.A. 5 Open Regionalism in a World of Continental Trade Blocks / IMF Staff Papers. V. 45. N 3 (September 1998). P. 441.

6 See: ibidem. P. 446-447, 452.

Flam H., Nordstrom H. 7 The Euro and Single Market Effect on Trade and FDI. Stockholm, 2007. P. 18.

8 See: Shishkov Yu. V. Integration processes on the threshold of the XXI century. Why don't the CIS countries integrate? Moscow, 2001, pp. 20-21.

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and production, or even more broadly - on the interpenetration and interweaving of national reproduction cycles as a whole." Integration is considered as "a self-developing historical phenomenon that initially originates in the most technically, economically and socio-politically developed regions of the world and gradually draws new countries into this process as they mature to the necessary economic, political and legal conditions."9. Accordingly, the greatest opportunities for integrating national economies are " highly developed countries that are able to intensively exchange goods and services with each other in the widest range. At the same time, they successfully complement each other, and the inevitable competition between producers of goods and services is not destructive, but stimulating, by and large contributing to the growth of the technical and economic potential of such partner countries and improving the well-being of their populations"10. Countries that are at a lower level of development do not produce enough of the goods and services that each other needs, and their economies cannot be considered complementary. On the contrary, they often compete in global markets as competitors to each other.

If at relatively low stages of economic development the international division of labor existed almost exclusively in the form of inter-sectoral division of labor, then as the technological level of development of national economies increases, they are increasingly involved in the intra-sectoral division of labor. The production process is increasingly distributed among different countries, and, accordingly, the share of intra-industry trade in their foreign trade is increasingly increasing.

It should be borne in mind that the concept of intra-industry trade covers two different processes. On the one hand, it is the mutual exchange of finished products of the same industry by producing countries, which reflects different levels of prices, quality, consumer preferences (for consumer goods) or differences in capacity or adaptability to use in different conditions (for means of production). This process is called horizontal intra-industry trading. Thus, the largest car exporters in the world in 2009 were Germany, Japan, the United States, France and Spain, while the largest importers were the United States, Germany, France, Great Britain and Italy. As you can see, three countries (USA, Germany, France) are included in both these lists 11. In China's trade in metalworking equipment, exports of grinding machines cover imports, while imports of lathes and presses prevail over exports in terms of cost (although more are exported in terms of quantity, since China mainly imports expensive and complex equipment).12.

Another process is the movement of counter-flows of parts and components used to produce the final product. It is this process, called vertical intra-industry trade, that indicates the most profound international division of labor, which has passed into the division of the production process itself.13
As noted by Yu. According to Shishkov, vertical cross-border differentiation of production and exchange, as the technological level of production increases, becomes "a much more active driving force of intra-industry trade" than horizontal 14. Accordingly, according to him, "the motivation of international trade in comparative production costs is consistently replaced by the motivation of economies of scale in production and sales, which, in turn, is often replaced by the motivation of international trade in This is associated with the vertical specialization of enterprises within TNCs, as well as beyond them. " 15
Under these conditions, the results of integration measures depend not only on how much costs will be reduced due to the removal of trade barriers, but also on the presence of already established vertically integrated production structures, as well as on the possibilities of creating such structures. The creation of a free trade zone, customs or monetary union can help reduce the investment barrier, which will allow placing certain links of international production in the relevant country. If these links are already working, then it will not be possible to extend the conditions existing in the integration grouping to other countries.-

9 Ibid., p. 22.

10 Ibid., pp. 73-74.

11 See: BIKI. 09.04.2011. N 40.

12 See: BIKI. 29.01.2011. N 12.

13 See: Shishkov Yu. V. Internationalization of production - a new stage in the development of the world economy. Moscow, IMEMO RAS, 2009, pp. 23, 25, 28.

14 See: ibid., p. 23.

Evolyutsiya teorii mezhdunarodnogo razdeleniya truda [Evolution of theories of international Division of Labor].

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it is sufficient to transfer the corresponding links to them, since even at lower costs, the payback period for the corresponding operation can be very long.

The interweaving of reproduction processes in national economies increases their interdependence. Accordingly, the influence of partner countries on the economic cycle in a particular State increases. J. Frankl and E. Rose, in their work on the formation of an optimal currency area in Europe, empirically proved that the greater the intensity of bilateral trade between countries, the more noticeable the synchronization of their economic cycles.16 Accordingly, they concluded that the creation of an integration association (in this case, a monetary union) can help increase the volume of trade between its participants and thereby make their economies more ready to participate in this association. Thus, the integration process is self-reinforcing.

Some authors have considered the insights of John. Frankl and E. Rose were not sufficiently justified, doubting that it is trade that contributes to the synchronization of cycles. They suggested that cycles could be determined by general shocks, which were stronger for countries that trade more with each other. However, the study of J. R. R. Tolkien A study by Giovanni and A. Levchenko, specifically devoted to the role of vertical production links in synchronizing economic cycles, confirmed that in those industries that use each other's products as intermediate products, there is a significantly higher dependence of cyclical dynamics on mutual trade. According to these authors ' calculations, about a third of vertical production links in bilateral trade correlate with the economic cycle. This confirms the conclusion that economic shocks are transmitted through production chains (although other channels of influence remain unclear).17.

INTERNATIONAL DIVISION OF LABOR IN MECHANICAL ENGINEERING

The greatest potential for intra-industry division of labor is found in the mechanical engineering industry, where the development of new technologies makes it possible to constantly complicate products, split up the production of individual parts and components, and carry out separate production processes at different enterprises. Currently, there are three major engineering centers in the global economy that account for the largest share of global mechanical engineering consumption - North America, Western Europe,and East Asia. 18 Regional integration is actively implemented in each of them. In Western Europe, 27 countries are members of the European Union, and another 4 are members of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA). The United States, Canada and Mexico have formed the North American Free Trade Association (NAFTA). The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has 10 member states that adhere to the principle of "open regionalism"in foreign trade. It is characteristic that this process is progressing at a faster pace within the region and more slowly in trade with third countries.19 In 2002, China signed a free trade agreement with the ASEAN countries. Since 2010, these countries (with the exception of Laos, Vietnam, and Myanmar) have abolished import duties on the vast majority of Chinese goods (while vehicle components and heavy machinery products are still subject to lower rates).20.

To determine the extent to which major machine and equipment producing countries meet each other's needs for machine - building products, and to what extent they supply them to the rest of the world, which acts as a net consumer, we will use the classical methodology for measuring intra-industry trade using the Grubel-Lloyd indices.

16 См.: Frankel J.A., Rose A.K. The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area // Economic Journal. N 449. July 1998. P. 1009-1025. (The authors measured trade intensity as the ratio of country A's exports to country B and its imports from this country to the combined exports and imports of countries A and B. The dynamics of the economic cycle was studied on the basis of four quarterly indicators - GDP, industrial production, employment and unemployment.)

17 См.: Giovanni J., Levchenko A. Putting the Parts Together: Trade, Vertical Linkages, and Business Cycle Comovement. IMF. August 2009. WP/09/181.

18 For more information about these centers, see: Sokolov V. O nekotorykh tendentsiyakh torgovli mashinami i oborudovaniem [On some trends in trade in machinery and equipment]. Machine-building complex of Japan: development trends // ME and MO. 2006. N 8; same name. China's place in the global Economy: a modern "workshop of Peace". 2007. N 8; same name. The European Union in modern international trade in machinery and equipment / / ME and MO. 2008. N 6.

19 See: Shishkov Yu. V. Integration processes on the threshold of the XXI century, p. 146; ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA Council) (http: www.asean.org/19585.htm).

20 See: BIKI. 23.01.2010. N 8.

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By intra-industry trade, H. G. Grubel and P. J. Lloyd understood the export of an industry covered by the import of the same industry. Intra-industry trade is calculated as the difference between total trade (the sum of all exports and all imports of products of a particular industry) and inter-industry trade (exports or imports of products of a given industry that do not correspond to the counterflow of products of the same industry). Inter-industry trade, i.e. net exports/imports of products of the relevant industry, is calculated as the modulus of the difference between exports and imports of its products. Consequently, intra-industry trade represents the external trade turnover of an industry minus its net exports (imports). Intra-industry trade is usually expressed as a percentage of the external turnover of this industry. Accordingly, it is calculated by the formula

Bi = [(Xi + Mi) - |Xi - Mi|] × 100/(Xi + Mi),

where bithe coefficient of intra-industry trade, expressed as a percentage; Xithe export of the corresponding industry;the import of the corresponding industry 21.

It should be borne in mind that the one - and two-digit classification of goods does not separate vertical intra-industry trade from horizontal. Accordingly, the Grubel-Lloyd indices calculated on the basis of this classification do not characterize the sheer scale of international industrial cooperation. However, they allow us to judge how intensive the exchange of products produced by one industry is. This means the complementarity of national production complexes.

The study takes the foreign trade relations of mechanical engineering in three countries: the United States, which occupies a central position in the North American industrial region; Germany, a leading manufacturer in Western Europe; and China, which has become the world's largest supplier of industrial products22. The intensity of their intra-industry trade in machinery and transport equipment (commodity group 7 according to the International Standard Trade Classification SITC) among themselves and with 25 other countries with a developed manufacturing industry, as well as the BRIC countries, is considered. According to the WTO, all of these countries were among the world's top 50 exporters in 200923. The Grubel-Lloyd indices for China, Germany, and the United States ' trade in mechanical engineering products with other countries were calculated for 2007-2009, and the arithmetic mean values for the corresponding period24 were determined. It should be emphasized that the coefficients of intra-industry trade characterize the intensity of this trade of the state under consideration with the partner country, but not the specific weight of the partner country in the turnover of this state.

The results of the study are quite unexpected. First of all, international cooperation has traditionally developed in relations between neighboring countries (for the United States - with Canada and Mexico, for Germany - with the Benelux countries, for China - with the countries of East and Southeast Asia). This reality is reflected, in particular, in the aforementioned concept of "natural trading partners". However, for none of the three countries under consideration is the partner with the most intensive intra-industry trade a neighbor. For China, this is Germany, for the United States - Vietnam, for Germany - Malaysia. Moreover, the group of countries with the most intensive intra-industry trade is not dominated by their neighbors in the region. Among the 10 countries with which China conducts the most intensive intra-industry trade in machinery and equipment, five are Asian and five are European. Moreover, four European countries - Germany, Sweden, Italy, and France-occupy the leading positions in terms of the intensity of intra-industry trade in Chinese engineering.

Among the 10 most intensive German trade partners are five Asian countries (Malaysia, China, Singapore, Thailand, and the Republic of Korea), four European countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Switzerland, and Poland), and one North American country (Mexico).

21 См.: Grubel H.G., Lloyd P.J. Intra-Industry Trade. The Theory & Measurement of International Trade in Differentiated Products. L., 1975. P. 20-21.

22 For more information, see: Sokolov V. Trends in the development of world commodity trade in 1990-2008 / / ME and MO. 2011. N 2.

23 См.: International Trade Statistics 2010. Geneva, 2010. P. 181-184.

24 Indices calculated for trade in goods of the same group between two countries based on data from each of these countries tend to differ, since country A's exports to country B are usually not equal to country B's imports from country A due to differences in data coverage, trade systems, accounting times, interpretation and application of product classification, determining the cost, identifying the partner country, etc.

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In addition to the United States, the sample includes only three countries in the Western Hemisphere, which occupy the 5th (Canada), 10th (Mexico) and 20th (Brazil) places in trade in American engineering products, respectively. The top ten U.S. partners in terms of intra-industry trade intensity include four European and four Asian countries. At the same time, the top positions are occupied by Asian countries - Vietnam and the Philippines. They are followed by the United Kingdom and Spain. Thus, inter-continental intra-industry trade looks even more intense than intra-continental trade.

Furthermore, recent decades have been characterized by a strong increase in economic interdependence between the countries of North America and the Asia-Pacific region (APR). An increase in the share of Asia-Pacific countries, primarily China, in US imports was, along with higher energy prices, one of the main factors contributing to the increase in the US trade deficit. The growth of China's trade surplus with the United States and the investment of the funds received in American securities became the main source of accumulation of China's gold and foreign exchange reserves. At the same time, the countries of East Asia increasingly specialized in the production of mechanical engineering products. Thus, the share of Asian countries in world exports of office and telecommunications equipment, according to the WTO, increased from 47.3% in 2000 to 59.4% in 2009, including the share of China - from 4.5% to 26.2% 25. At the same time, the international exchange of intermediate products between these countries increased, which indicates an increase in their participation in the intra-industry division of labor. According to some estimates, for the period 1990-2008. exports of finished goods from the United States and Southeast Asian countries to third countries grew by an average of 7.1%, while exports of intermediate products grew by 10.2% per year26.

All this gave reason to assume that the intensity of intra-industry trade in mechanical engineering products between the United States and most of the countries of Southeast Asia is also quite high. However, calculating the Grubel-Lloyd indices makes the picture more complex. Among the 27 trading partners of the United States, Vietnam and the Philippines are not the largest partners (with coefficients above 90%). The Republic of Korea ranks 18th in terms of intra-industry trade with the United States, Malaysia ranks 21st, Thailand ranks 23rd, Japan ranks 24th, and China (the largest supplier of machinery and equipment in the United States) ranks 25th. Of the Asian countries other than Vietnam and the Philippines, only Singapore and Indonesia have rates above 70%. This suggests that trade between the United States and Southeast Asian countries is increasing mainly due to cross-industry trade.

Indeed, an analysis of the commodity structure of trade between the United States and China shows that the US deficit in trade with China is formed mainly due to trade in machinery and transport equipment, as well as in Group 8 goods ("other industrial products" 27), to a lesser extent-in goods of groups 0 (food) and 6 (industrial goods classified primarily by materials 28). At the same time, US exports of machinery and transport equipment to China in 2009 accounted for only 14% of their imports from there, exports of group goods 6-12%, and exports of Group 8 goods 4%. Thus, trade between the United States and China is mostly inter-sectoral.

But the deficit of Germany in trade with China is formed due to a fairly large range of product groups, which do not include groups 2 (raw materials), 5 (chemical products) and 9 (other goods). German exports of machinery and transport equipment to China in 2009 accounted for 92% of their imports from there29. Thus, there are strong counter-flows in the trade of mechanical engineering products between China and Germany. Among Germany's trading partners, China has surpassed Switzerland, Poland, France, the Netherlands, Italy and a number of other European countries in terms of intra-industry trade coefficients. Combined with the highest values of the Grubel-Lloyd indices for European countries in China's foreign trade, this suggests that there is an extremely intensive intra-industry trade in mechanical engineering products between Southeast Asia and Western Europe.

25 См.: International Trade Statistics 2010. P. 98.

26 См.: Escaith H., Lindenderg N., Miroudot S. International Supply Chains and Trade Elasticity in Times of Global Crisis. World Trade Organization. Staff Working Papers ERSD-2010-08. February 2010. P. 7.

27 This group includes furniture, travel goods, clothing, shoes, tools and equipment, cameras, watches, etc.

28 This group includes articles made of leather, rubber, wood, paper and cardboard, textiles, articles made of non-metallic minerals, ferrous and non-ferrous metals, and metal products.

29 Calculated based on the COMTRADE database.

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INDUSTRY RELATIONSHIPS: UNEXPECTED DESTINATIONS

It should be noted that the use of an unambiguous trade classification when identifying industries gives results with a rather rough approximation. A certain product group includes a number of industries that do not interact with each other. To assess the intensity of counter-trade between truly homogeneous types of products, consider the Grubel-Lloyd indices for China's foreign trade in specific types of mechanical engineering products - office equipment and automatic data processing machines (Group 75 according to the SITC classification) and automotive products (Group 78). As we saw above, China is the undisputed world leader in the first industry. The second industry in this country is also developing very intensively.

Calculations show that in China's trade in office equipment, the directions of intra-industry trade are significantly different than in mechanical engineering as a whole. The first six places are occupied by East Asian countries-Malaysia, Vietnam, the Republic of Korea, Indonesia, Singapore, and Japan. Together with Thailand, which is in 10th place, the top ten includes seven countries in the region. The remaining three countries are European (Hungary, Sweden, and Switzerland). The US ranks 14th, Germany 15th. Thus, statistical data confirm the high concentration of trade flows in the South-East Asian region, which has become the main global center for the production of office equipment and cross-country cooperation in this industry (with a low intensity of intra-industry trade with the United States).

China's trade in automobiles and their parts, on the contrary, has the most intensive intra-industry turnover with European countries. The top rows of the table are occupied by the United Kingdom, France, Spain, and the Czech Republic. The top ten also includes Hungary and Belgium. Among Asian countries, intra-industry trade is the most intensive with the Republic of Korea, which ranks 8th. The United States is in 9th place, Japan is in 10th, and Germany is in 16th. These tables indicate a high degree of development of cooperation between the automotive industry of the EU and China.

Table 1. Grubel-Lloyd indices for China's trade in machinery, equipment and vehicles with a number of leading countries

2007

2008

2009

Average for 2007-2009

GERMANY

93.7

91.5

81.9

89.0

Sweden

91.0

85.1

78.7

84.9

Italy

88.2

75.9

83.2

82.4

France

83.9

85.6

77.6

82.4

Japan

69.5

71.3

69.9

70.2

Republic of Korea

59.2

72.9

70.6

67.5

Malaysia

66.6

68.4

62.7

65.9

Singapore

67.0

60.7

60.4

62.7

Thailand

58.7

60.6

58.4

59.2

Switzerland

56.0

66.8

54.6

59.1

Belgium

51.0

44.8

57.9

51.2

Indonesia

64.5

45.5

42.8

51.0

Mexico

50.0

43.0

45.5

46.2

Canada

42.2

40.8

48.9

44.0

Hungary

42.9

41.1

47.5

43.8

USA

42.3

42.7

44.1

43.0

Great Britain

39.4

45.4

42.6

42.5

Philippines

27.3

35.8

51.3

38.1

Czech

34.7

31.2

33.6

33.2

Spain

34.6

24.2

32.5

30.5

Vietnam

19.7

23.9

26.1

23.2

Poland

15.1

15.4

18.1

16.2

Brazil

13.4

16.5

16.1

15.3

Netherlands

13.1

13.8

16.4

14.4

Australia

16.4

12.6

10.8

13.3

Russia

5.2

6.0

13.3

8.2

India

9.0

6.4

8.1

7.9

Tables 1-6 are based on the COMTRADE database.

Germany is not one of the leaders in terms of intra-industry trade intensity, but deliveries of automotive components from Asian countries, including China, played a significant role in its market already in the mid-2000s. Experts noted that "with the increasing investment of European and American producers in China, competition in the German market is increasing, as the quality and prices of spare parts imported to Europe by European and American wholesale firms are equalized." 30
To determine what the situation in the German automotive industry looks like, let's look at the indicators of its intra-industry trade in car parts with countries of the same group. Among Germany's trading partners in terms of intensity

30 BIKI. 19.10.2006. N 119.

page 46
Table 2. Grubel-Lloyd indices for German trade in machinery, equipment and vehicles with a number of leading countries

2007

2008

2009

Average for 2007-2009

Malaysia

98.9

94.4

85.4

92.9

Czech

92.7

93.2

86.1

90.7

Hungary

94.1

96.7

80.9

90.6

China

83.8

88.8

96.0

89.5

Mexico

83.2

86.4

88.1

85.9

Switzerland

89.1

86.1

81.9

85.7

Singapore

94.2

86.7

75.3

85.4

Thailand

83.4

85.1

83.5

84.0

Republic of Korea

81.8

80.3

85.9

82.7

Poland

69.9

72.0

81.9

74.6

France

74.3

75.0

74.0

74.4

Indonesia

83.3

61.9

77.4

74.2

Netherlands

73.6

71.2

74.0

72.9

USA

67.5

68.4

73.1

69.6

Italy

67.0

70.6

69.0

68.9

Belgium

63.1

63.9

71.5

66.1

Philippines

63.8

61.2

59.6

61.5

Great Britain

53.5

58.9

62.6

58.3

Japan

57.1

56.7

60.4

58.1

Brazil

61.3

56.5

55.4

57.7

Spain

46.3

52.2

69.2

55.9

Vietnam

38.8

58.4

59.7

52.3

Sweden

48.3

53.1

51.0

50.8

Canada

41.0

45.4

52.2

46.2

India

32.9

37.7

41.2

37.3

Australia

11.6

9.2

6.5

9.1

Russia

3.1

2.8

4.1

3.3

Brazil (where Volkswagen cars have been produced since 1953) is in the lead in counter-trade of automotive products. Mexico is also in the top ten. Both countries are home to the German company Volkswagen AG, which remains the largest car manufacturer in Latin America31, with some of its products exported to Europe. At the same time, the United States ranks only 19th in terms of the intensity of counter-trade with Germany. Among the 10 leading partners in Germany's intra-industry turnover are 5 European countries: Hungary, the Czech Republic, Poland, Belgium, and Spain. It is characteristic that all of these countries, except for the last one, directly border Germany. Volkswagen AG32 also operates in all of them. The top ten partners include three Asian countries-Japan, Thailand and the Republic of Korea. For Japan, which ranks 2nd, the Grubel-Lloyd index is extremely high (over 90%). For Thailand, it is also high (86%). For India, which is not included in the top ten, it exceeds 70%. China, on the other hand, ranks only 23rd in this indicator. Thus, the German automotive industry cooperates to the greatest extent with the EU countries, but also with Brazil, Japan and Thailand. Links to Southeast Asia again

Table 3. Grubel-Lloyd Indices for U.S. trade in machinery, equipment, and vehicles with a number of leading countries

2007

2008

2009

Average for 2007-2009

Vietnam

94.0

99.7

92.2

95.3

Philippines

99.4

96.5

87.5

94.5

Great Britain

95.0

93.6

88.2

92.2

Spain

83.8

86.5

97.0

89.1

Canada

90.9

84.6

84.6

86.7

France

94.6

93.2

60.4

82.7

Poland

69.9

61.7

97.4

76.3

Singapore

75.5

66.0

85.6

75.7

Indonesia

73.1

84.0

60.0

72.4

Mexico

68.8

71.9

72.5

71.1

Czech

74.5

74.8

61.9

70.4

India

49.6

71.7

83.6

68.3

Switzerland

70.2

75.5

54.9

66.9

Germany

66.2

67.2

57.2

63.5

Hungary

60.1

59.5

69.7

63.1

Belgium

58.1

55.6

69.6

61.1

Italy

60.0

59.6

55.9

58.5

Republic of Korea

64.9

57.7

51.5

58.0

Sweden

52.2

58.8

59.9

57.0

Brazil

63.3

55.3

51.5

56.7

Malaysia

48.7

57.4

56.4

54.2

Netherlands

55.6

49.8

56.2

53.9

Thailand

58.1

52.0

49.6

53.2

Japan

34.1

34.1

28.1

32.1

China

32.2

30.9

24.8

29.3

Australia

21.2

29.2

22.7

24.3

Russia

10.0

7.4

17.6

11.7

31 См.: Volkswagen Aktiegesellschaft. Annual Report 2010. P. 72.

32 See: http://www.volkswagenag.com/vwag/vwcorp/content/en/the_group/production_plants.html Of the 27 countries listed in Table 6, Volkswagen AG had its operations at the beginning of 2011 in 16-Belgium, Brazil, Great Britain, Hungary, India, Spain, Italy, China, Mexico, the Netherlands, Poland, Russia, USA, France, Czech Republic, Sweden.

page 47
They turn out to be more important than connections to North America.

As can be seen from the tables, the intensity of intra-industry trade in machinery and equipment of all three countries with Russia is low. The Russian Federation remains a net importer of machinery and equipment, and its exports are mainly directed to developing and medium-developed countries. In recent years, cooperation with foreign manufacturers in the automotive industry has been established, but so far its products are mainly focused on the domestic market.33
Table 4. Grubel-Lloyd indices for China's trade in office equipment and automated data processing equipment with a number of leading countries

2007

2008

2009

Average for 2007-2009

Malaysia

70.4

88.6

96.0

85.0

Vietnam

94.0

81.3

71.2

82.2

Republic of Korea

67.5

89.1

84.9

80.5

Indonesia

59.7

84.0

86.5

76.7

Singapore

75.0

69.1

53.7

66.0

Japan

55.9

53.8

54.6

54.8

Hungary

39.4

44.2

68.4

50.7

Sweden

51.0

33.9

16.4

33.8

Switzerland

51.0

27.7

19.7

32.8

Thailand

33.1

30.2

32.0

31.8

Mexico

37.6

28.8

23.7

30.0

Philippines

22.1

26.9

26.3

25.1

Italy

24.7

10.5

8.5

14.6

USA

10.8

10.0

7.1

9.3

Germany

11.5

6.8

8.1

8.8

Canada

5.7

5.1

6.9

5.9

Great Britain

4.8

4.8

3.5

4.4

India

7.6

3.0

2.4

4.3

Belgium

3.9

3.2

4.0

3.7

France

4.1

3.1

2.5

3.2

Czech

6.5

1.3

0.8

2.9

Spain

2.7

3.1

1.2

2.4

Australia

1.8

0.5

0.6

1.0

Netherlands

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.4

Russia

0.5

0.2

0.3

0.3

Poland

0.6

0.1

0.1

0.3

Brazil

0.2

0.1

0.5

0.3

See Table 5. Grubel-Lloyd Indices for China's Motor vehicle trade with a number of leading countries

2007

2008

2009

Average for 2007-2009

Great Britain

69.0

94.6

70.6

78.1

France

70.2

64.6

96.5

77.1

Spain

70.1

71.0

84.9

75.3

Czech

70.1

52.5

95.6

72.7

Mexico

67.1

53.2

79.1

66.5

Hungary

72.6

73.1

48.7

64.8

Belgium

56.4

55.8

81.9

64.7

Republic

66.2

72.6

50.1

63.0

Korea

USA

39.7

46.7

69.3

51.9

Japan

55.7

51.7

36.7

48.1

Canada

56.5

41.8

41.0

46.4

Sweden

44.6

48.4

43.1

45.4

Italy

29.2

34.3

46.0

36.5

Switzerland

13.2

16.8

78.9

36.3

Poland

20.7

20.3

57.2

32.7

Germany

34.3

35.4

25.7

31.8

Malaysia

28.4

31.0

28.7

29.4

Thailand

34.2

20.8

29.1

28.0

Singapore

16.6

14.6

33.2

21.5

Netherlands

12.3

8.9

29.3

16.8

Brazil

21.2

7.9

8.4

12.5

Indonesia

22.7

9.4

2.5

11.6

Philippines

8.0

7.0

6.0

7.0

Australia

9.1

5.2

5.4

6.6

India

7.4

4.7

6.8

6.3

Vietnam

1.0

1.3

3.7

2.0

Russia

0.1

0.0

1.8

0.7

* * *

The study showed that there is a high intensity of counter-trade in mechanical engineering products within regional integration groups. However, such trade is also very intensive in the directions of China-Germany, China-Sweden, Germany-Malaysia, Mexico, USA-Vietnam, Philippines, Great Britain, Spain. In the automotive industry - in such areas as Germany-Brazil, Japan. This indicates a high degree of complementarity between the machine-building complexes of Germany and the countries of Southeast Asia.,

33 For more information, see: Sokolov V. Russian mechanical engineering in the system of international economic relations // ME and MO. 2010. N 6.

page 48
Table 6. Grubel-Lloyd indices for German motor vehicle trade with a number of leading countries

2007

2008

2009

Average for 2007-2009

Brazil

95.3

99.3

85.9

93.5

Japan

91.5

93.7

91.5

92.2

Hungary

97.6

94.3

83.3

91.7

Thailand

78.1

94.6

85.5

86.0

Czech

84.1

87.5

69.1

80.2

Poland

71.0

72.8

88.3

77.3

Belgium

69.3

74.8

84.8

76.3

Mexico

80.0

73.8

71.7

75.1

Spain

60.5

70.8

93.1

74.8

Republic of Korea

85.9

70.8

64.6

73.8

India

67.0

79.2

72.6

72.9

France

75.3

71.1

72.1

72.9

Indonesia

60.2

51.0

86.4

65.9

Netherlands

57.3

59.0

58.6

58.3

Italy

55.1

59.3

58.4

57.6

Sweden

50.0

53.4

42.6

48.7

Vietnam

42.4

56.2

39.1

45.9

Malaysia

37.5

39.8

45.8

41.1

USA

39.8

42.7

40.6

41.0

Great Britain

35.5

35.6

38.7

36.6

Philippines

42.1

30.0

28.0

33.4

Switzerland

31.8

27.8

25.9

28.5

China

27.3

27.2

23.6

26.0

Singapore

11.8

13.2

8.5

11.2

Canada

5.2

6.9

5.0

5.7

Russia

1.0

0.8

2.9

1.6

Australia

1.5

1.3

1.0

1.2

as well as Latin America. Such complementarity is revealed to a lesser extent in the interconnections of machine-building complexes in the USA and Southeast Asia. At the same time, it is clearly expressed in the relations of the United States with certain countries of Western Europe. At the same time, trade between the United States and China, the growth of which has significantly changed the entire structure of the international division of labor in the last decade, is mainly inter-sectoral. Thus, cooperative ties between the machine-building industry of neighboring states become an important prerequisite for the development of regional integration. However, at present, geographical proximity and participation in integration associations do not play a decisive role in the formation of such ties. Vertically integrated production structures are often formed on a transcontinental scale.

Keywords: geoeconomics, world economy, international division of labor, organizational and economic analysis, commodity-value analysis, production chains, integration, flow-forming effect, flow-deflecting effect, intra-industry trade, mechanical engineering, Grubel-Lloyd indices.

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