On March 5-6, 2003, the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences hosted the annual scientific conference on problems and trends in the development of Southeast Asia, organized by the Institute's Southeast Asia Division. Employees of academic institutes and higher educational institutions of Moscow, employees of practical organizations participated in its work. The conference was dedicated to the 85th anniversary of the birth of G. I. Levinson (1918-1988), who was one of the founders of the direction of Southeast Asian studies in Russian Oriental studies.

In the opening speech of the Deputy. A. Z. Yegorin, Director of the Institute of Information Technology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, noted the major contribution of G. I. Levinson to the development of research on Southeast Asia and positively assessed the experience of the Southeast Asian Division in holding annual scientific conferences. He stressed that the current conference is also devoted to topical issues of both regional and global nature.

Yu. O. Levtonova (Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences) described G. I. Levinson as a major Oriental scholar and a bright and extraordinary personality. In the mid-1950s, the Department of Southeast Asia was formed in the Institute of Oriental Studies of the USSR Academy of Sciences, which marked the beginning of the systematic development of a new branch of Oriental science. G. I. Levinson played an important role in the development of this direction. Without holding official administrative positions, he became an informal scientific leader who created an atmosphere of creativity and scientific research. At the same time, he was extremely demanding of the work of his junior colleagues, evaluating any research from the point of view of

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high level of professionalism. His research interests were extensive. It is no coincidence that Georgy Ilyich led and was one of the leading authors of collective general institute works, an active participant in scientific and theoretical conferences. Still, in a narrow professional sense, the Philippines, the country he had devoted his entire life to studying, remained the center of his attention. He worked on the recent history of the Philippines, and his major seminal work, "The Philippines on the Road to Independence" (1972), is an example of a truly creative application of Marxist theory, devoid of any vulgarization or dogmatism. G. I. Levinson's work has not lost its scientific significance even today. The scientist died in the prime of his creative powers, without fully revealing his multifaceted talent as an Orientalist, historian, and political scientist.

The main presentations at the conference were made by the heads of the Department. Department of Southeast Asia D. V. Mosyakov and S. A. Bylinyak (both of IB RAS).

D. V. Mosyakov's report "New realities in integration processes in East and South-East Asia" highlights new stages and integration models in the region. The period leading up to the 1997-1998 Asian crisis was characterized by rapid economic growth in most of the ASEAN countries and political stability. Under these circumstances, the plan to create an ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) in the region was quite realistic. Since the crisis, the vulnerability of even the most successful ASEAN countries to global challenges has become apparent. The financial crisis has undermined the confidence of ASEAN countries in major international financial institutions such as the IMF and the US-controlled IBRD. The efforts of Japan and China to prevent the crisis from deepening were fully supported in the Southeast Asian countries. In the post-crisis period, the countries of Greater East Asia realized their common interests. This was shown in practice at the ASEAN Plus Three Summit (Japan, China, South Korea) in Singapore in 2000, where the integration model was adopted, which provided for equal participation of all parties. However, real contradictions both within the BA and ASEAN countries have led to a change in the entire integration model.

At the Brunei Summit in 2001, China proposed that the Association countries establish a separate free trade area without Japan and South Korea under the "China plus ASEAN" formula. In response, Japan offered its own version of the common market to the ASEAN countries. The key point of Beijing's new policy towards Southeast Asia was the policy that allowed Chinese companies to invest capital outside the country. The Chinese project is attractive to all ASEAN members, while the Japanese project, based on the conclusion of bilateral agreements between partners, is beneficial only to the most developed countries (Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand), as it contains a number of restrictions. At the ASEAN Plus Three Summit in Phnom Penh in 2002, the Association countries confirmed their intention to continue implementing their free trade area agreements with China. In addition to Japan and China, other Greater East Asian countries (South Korea and Taiwan) have entered an "integration race" with ASEAN. There are several possible scenarios in the development of the situation: maintaining today's uncertainty for quite a long time; disintegration of the Association into pro-Japanese (the most developed countries of Southeast Asia) and pro-Chinese blocks (the least developed countries of Southeast Asia); preservation of ASEAN and gradual transition of all ten countries under the aegis of "Greater China"; gradual overcoming of existing contradictions. In general, new integration projects may ultimately undermine the stability and balance of forces and interests in Southeast Asia in the future.

S. A. Bylinyak (Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences) in his report "Investment Model for the development of Southeast Asian countries" noted that economic growth can occur either as a result of increasing labor productivity, or by increasing investment. Although the former is preferable, it is not possible for many developing countries to do so. In the fast-growing countries of Southeast and East Asia (SEEA), a model based on massive investment was implemented. The share of investment in GDP exceeded the global average by 1.6-2 times and amounted to 35-40%. The speaker believes that the implementation of the investment model is possible only in the conditions of an active financial market. As a result of the financial crisis in the region, this mechanism was undermined. In a number of SEEA countries, the share of investment has declined significantly. Therefore, the primary task of States emerging from the crisis is to re-establish their national identity.-

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structuring banks, improving the efficiency of corporate sector management, and building trust between lenders and borrowers.

In accordance with the conference theme, the presentations were presented in three blocks: politics and geopolitics, economics, and country problems.

In his presentation on the first block, V. F. Vasiliev (IB RAS) reported on the publication of the four-volume book "The Cambridge History of Southeast Asia" ("The Cambridge History of Southeast Asia"). Cambridge: Univ. Press, 1992-1999) edited by N. Tarling, Professor of History at the University of Auckland (New Zealand). The speaker called the publication a great event in the world historiography of Southeast Asia. This is the first multi-volume study of the region's history, from the earliest times to the early 1990s. The paper focuses on economic, social, religious and political history. The work was written by a new generation of authors, mostly those who have already moved away from the stereotypes of the colonial era. Of the approximately 20 authors, 7 are from Australian universities, 5 are from the United States, 2 are from the United Kingdom, and the rest are from Singapore, Hong Kong, Holland, and New Zealand. This work is an obvious achievement of the Cambridge Histories series, which has been published for a full century. However, in some cases it is not free from some weaknesses and shortcomings, as its authors themselves admit.

V. A. Tyurin (Institute of History of the Russian Academy of Sciences) in his report "Globalism and Internationalism in Southeast Asia" focused on the problem of the connection between globalization and colonialism. He believes that it was the latter that became the harbinger of the era of globalization. Southeast Asia is one of the first regions to be involved in this process. The crisis of the colonial system meant (among other things) a reaction to the growing globalism. After achieving independence, the Southeast Asian countries demonstrated a model of world order that is opposed to globalization, namely, internationalization, which significantly influenced the theory and practice of ASEAN. In modern conditions, it is internationalization that can become a tool for countering globalization, i.e. the unconditional domination of the Western world, or rather the United States, in all spheres of the emerging world order.

M. N. Gusev's report "Southeast Asia: Islam and Society" addressed the topic of radicalization of Islam in the countries of the region. Radical Islamist organizations include the opposition Islamic Party (PAS) in Malaysia, which came to power in two states. In Indonesia, Islamic radical leader Abu Bashir, suspected of links to al-Qaeda, pressured parliament in 2002 to legislate for Sharia law. According to some reports, the extremist Muslim group Jemaah Islamiyah is active in the region, hatching plans to create a "pan-Islamic state" in Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei and the Philippines. On the issue of sharia law, the positions of moderate and radical Muslims differ. The former believe that he should not invade his personal life. The radicals insist on strict observance of all the canons of Sharia law.

L. N. Morev's presentation "Divided peoples of Indochina: virtual and real conflicts" was devoted to a problem that is rarely covered in Russian literature and is undoubtedly relevant for Southeast Asia, since all the countries of the region are polyethnic in composition. This problem is considered by the author on the example of the situation in Indochina, where the countries are multinational. Some of them have ethnic groups separated by state borders. This situation is fraught with dangerous consequences - a possible conflict between the principle of territorial integrity and the right of a nation to self-determination.

The second block of presentations was opened by A. A. Rogozhin (IMEMO RAS) 'Terrorism in Southeast Asia: an economic aspect'. He noted that in 2002, terrorist actions for the first time so significantly affected the economic interests of most Southeast Asian countries. These actions were conceived by their initiators (regardless of their political, religious, or ethnic background) as a kind of "blow to the West and Western values". In fact, they had relatively little impact on the interests of the West in the region, but had serious direct consequences for a number of key sectors of the Southeast Asian countries ' economy. A. A. Rogozhin believes that this adverse impact on the socio-economic development of the region's countries is possible in the future. Among the main reasons for this, he noted the complete unwillingness of these countries, with the exception of Singapore, to both predict cases of terrorist attacks and prevent them.

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Moreover, the perception that prevailed for many years in the ruling circles and power structures of most Southeast Asian countries that only separatist movements are economically dangerous, while the activities of other extremists cannot cause significant economic damage, also affected them. Indonesia and Thailand have already suffered the biggest losses in tourism, mining and foreign trade. Investment inflows to the region have noticeably decreased, capital outflows have increased, social tensions have increased, as well as the instability of the eco-political systems of both individual countries and the region as a whole.

G. S. Shabalina's report "Socio-economic difficulties in the development of Southeast Asian countries" lists risk factors-external and internal, including terrorist threats, prolonged economic recession in world markets, etc. Risk factors in 2002 and early 2003 prevented foreign investors from supporting the positive image of the Southeast Asian countries, exacerbating instability in socio-political and economic life in the region. The flow of foreign tourists, including corporate and business tourism, has sharply decreased, especially after the terrorist attacks on Bali Island in Indonesia (October 2002), in the Philippines, in southern Thailand, etc. A number of countries, namely Australia, New Zealand, Japan, the United States, and the United Kingdom, did not lift the ban or significant restrictions on travel and stay of their citizens in Southeast Asia even in the first quarter of 2003. This has a significant impact on the region's revenues from tourism and related industries and services. Anti-Iraqi actions since the end of 2002 and especially before the beginning of military operations in Iraq have caused concern among Southeast Asian governments about the possible intensification of Islamic extremism.

E. S. Grebenshchikov (IMEMO) in his speech "ASEAN between Regionalism and globalism" defines ASEAN as a fairly successful regional organization in Southeast Asia, pursuing the goals of political cooperation and economic integration. The main achievement of the Association is overcoming the division of Southeast Asia, creating a favorable investment and business environment throughout the region. The two super-tasks of ASEAN are the intraregional interaction of the Association's members and its integration into global economic processes. In creating an integrated economic zone, even the first stage of integration - duty-free intra-zone trade-has not yet been overcome. The gap between the first-and second-wave ASEAN members remains significant. In some key areas, the countries of these groups are moving away from each other (for example, in the issue of protectionism for "strategic sectors" of the national economy). Negotiations on concluding bilateral trade and economic relations between certain Southeast Asian countries and major non-regional powers were more effective. At the same time, the fight against international terrorism has led not to greater cohesion, but to mutual claims and dissatisfaction with each other. At the same time, both China and Japan are promoting their own regional projects and designs. The Association does not have the same initiative as before. E. S. Grebenshchikov believes that Southeast Asia as an economic region is not self-sufficient; in this sense, economic regionalism on the scale of Southeast Asia, supported by the power of China and Japan, is more viable. In the regionalism of Southeast Asia today, the global beginning has become stronger, and regional and interregional borders have become rather conditional. ASEAN cannot serve as the antithesis of globalism in any way, and it is incorrect to identify the latter only with the United States.

N. G. Rogozhina (IMEMO), in her report "Ten Years after Rio", provided evidence that the deterioration of the environmental situation in Southeast Asian countries since the Rio Conference in 1992 was caused by economic, political and social reasons, as well as the prospects for their transition to environmentally oriented sustainable development. development. While recognizing the fact that most Southeast Asian countries are unable to cope with the growing environmental risks, N. G. Rogozhina is not inclined to assess the past ten years only from a negative point of view. The emergence of new positive trends in the environmental development of some countries in the region (Singapore, Thailand) is primarily indicated by the formation of a new approach to ecology as a necessary component of long-term economic growth and the most important condition for ensuring their competitive advantages in the world market. This approach is increasingly evident in the environmental activities of large national enterprises. However, one should not be under any illusions about the successful implementation of environmentally oriented development in Southeast Asia in the next ten years.

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I have to. The existing gap in the level of environmental development of the States of the region is likely to deepen, which may create additional economic and political difficulties, given the presence of cross-border environmental problems.

V. M. Nemchinov (Institute of Internal Affairs of the Russian Academy of Sciences) in his report "Problems of instability in a multiethnic society (SEEA countries)" described the difference in regional policy between the problems of maintaining stability and ensuring national security. While countries such as the Philippines and Indonesia are vulnerable to international terrorism in an emerging democracy, their top priority remains to create conditions for sustainable development. This is also the basis on which the foreign and domestic policies of the Southeast Asian countries ' foreign economic partnership - India-are based, which seeks to strengthen foreign economic ties with the region. This is evidenced by India's first participation in the ASEAN Summit in Phnom Penh in November 2002. In political and institutional terms, the issues of expanding foreign economic cooperation were mainly related to the concept of developing inter-regional relations between ASEAN and SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation). While the multilateral structure of regional cooperation is stalling due to the negative position of Pakistan, India is focusing on developing bilateral ties with Southeast Asian countries, raising its trade turnover in the region to $ 10 billion a year. In this regard, as a long-standing WTO member, it can compete with China, offering balanced and stable sales markets without customs barriers. An important step in this direction was the agreement to establish a free trade area in the region by 2008, reached at the last SAARC summit in Kathmandu in January 2002. The ASEAN-India cooperation Agreement is expected to be finalized this year.

In the report of L. F. Pakhomova (IB RAS) "Comparative analysis of models of socio-economic development of Southeast Asian countries (on the example of Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia)", it was emphasized that the formation of models occurs in a certain national, historical, cultural and institutional context. At all stages of their development and implementation, economists, sociologists and governments of Southeast Asian countries proceeded from Western theories and concepts (catching up with industrial development, post-industrial theory, the concept of creating an economy and society based on science and knowledge, etc.). In Singapore and Malaysia, the development of the Japanese sociologist T. Sokaya, consisting of in creating the "knowledge-value-society". Local scientists introduce their own approaches to them, taking into account national conditions and modern requirements. For example, Indonesia is developing a model of a" people's economy " that is close to the concept of M. L. King and at the same time, following the example of Japan, protects national identity. Local specialists pay special attention to the development of effective strategies that ensure development in the context of globalization and regionalization. They are exploring the possibilities of a new type of integration (in-depth) already at the SEEA scale. Malaysia, Singapore, and Indonesia (the latter in the most developed areas of accelerated economic growth) are developing world - class infrastructure. Developing these acceptable models and effective growth strategies faces setbacks, shortcomings, and mistakes. But there are already separate models that combine an efficient economy that takes into account the achievements of science, with diversified foreign economic relations.

A. I. Salitsky (IMEMO), in his report "China in the WTO: First results for SEEA", drew attention to the rapid growth of China's ties with ASEAN. In the autumn of 2001, before the former joined the WTO, the parties agreed to gradually create a free trade zone. This means that regional aspects of China's policy take precedence over global ones. Its import from ASEAN countries and so-called cooperation programs, which include a significant grant element in relations with the least developed countries of the Association, are expanding. Mutual trade turnover reached $ 42 billion in 2001. and in the future, according to experts, it will increase. The share of Southeast Asia in China's exports and imports is also increasing. All this leads to a significant improvement in political relations, previously acute problems of territorial claims are relegated to the background, etc. The growing role of Southeast Asian countries and territories in China's foreign economic relations makes the dynamic development of mutual cooperation a factor of regional formation. Regionalization also contributes to

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integration of the PRC and the Territories, as both Hong Kongers and Taiwanese are major investors in the ASEAN countries. China's economic growth significantly changes the usual contours of world economic processes. In Pacific Asia, there is a long process of forming regions with hotbeds of integration. This process is in a complementary relationship with the strengthening of political and economic sovereignty, the high independence of individual countries, and the preservation of the influence of former economic leaders (Japan). According to A. I. Salitsky, the process of regionalization and isolation of Pacific Asia in recent years quite naturally began to gravitate more towards the PRC - the largest and most dynamic economy in the Southeast Asian region. In China's own policy, regionalization is preferred over globalization.

Elena Troshina (Petroalliance) in her report " Oil and gas business in Southeast Asia - experience of cooperation with foreign capital and Russian realities" stressed the need to take into account the rich experience of implementing production sharing agreements (PSAs), a legal form of cooperation with foreign capital in the oil and gas industry, which originated in Southeast Asia in the second half of the 1960s. Currently, PSAs are successfully used in many countries of the world, and not only in developing countries. The widespread use of PSAs, according to the speaker, is due to the fact that such agreements allow Southeast Asian countries to attract foreign investment for the development of oil and gas fields with complex, sometimes unique geological conditions of formation, as well as their significant territorial remoteness and generally high and diverse risks. When attracting foreign capital for oil exploration and production, Russia faces problems that are largely similar to those already solved by the Southeast Asian countries. Attempts to introduce the PSA into Russian practice have so far failed, sparking a heated debate and generating multidirectional lobbying efforts. Troshina believes that Russia should carefully study the experience of Southeast Asian countries in this area. For almost four decades, the countries of the region have developed several well-known basic PSA models in the global oil and gas business (Indonesian, Malaysian, Vietnamese) with numerous dynamically improving options. In Russia, forms of cooperation with foreign companies, such as service contracts with risk (Philippines), licensing agreements and joint risk participation contracts (Myanmar) and other countries, are little known.

The third block of presentations was opened by a report by A. Drugov (IB RAS) on the realities and trends of Indonesia's development in 2002. The first half of the year was marked by relative political and partly economic stabilization. The elite reduced the intensity of the power struggle to allow the government of President M. Sukarnoputri to work. The Congress session (August) adopted decisions aimed at democratizing the political system. Independent representation of the army in elected bodies is being eliminated, proposals aimed at Islamization of the country are being rejected, and the rights of regions are being expanded. But the democratization that has begun is not irreversible. The lack of effectiveness of secular power and social inequality, combined with the negative consequences of globalization in a unipolar world, significantly increase the attractiveness of Islamist ideas for the social base, including extremist ones. The reaction to this was the strengthening of revanchist sentiments in the army, which seeks to regain its dominant position in the country. President M. Sukarnoputri is increasingly dependent on the armed forces as the only institution that can really resist the Islamists. Indonesia's fragile progress in democratization is under a double threat.

The topic of L. V. Goryaeva's speech "Liberal Islam on the pages of the Indonesian Internet" refers to those subjects concerning the religious situation in modern Indonesia that are almost unknown to Southeast Asian researchers. In recent years, the Indonesian Internet has become a national platform for discussing the problems of Islam - the role and place of religion in society, in particular, the polarization of opinions on the scale of "orthodoxy-liberalism". This controversy is reflected in the Jaringan Islam Liberal website created several years ago with the subtitle" Towards Islam bringing Liberation "("Menuji Islam yang membebaskan"). The main principles of the site - tolerance, emancipation, democracy-indicate the commitment of its creators to general democratic and liberal values. The authors condemn the adherents of fundamentalism, who seek to extract only a "negative" meaning from the Qur'an and hadith, and oppose it with a "positive" meaning (this is qasah-

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for example, the interpretation of the concept of "jihad", etc.). The site publishes articles by figures of liberal Islam from other countries (most often Egypt), dialogues with representatives of different religions. It is obvious that the creators of the site belong to the most westernized circles of society in terms of their upbringing and worldview. The focus of liberals ' educational work-ensuring intercivilizational and interfaith dialogue-is completely unacceptable for Orthodox christians, who often directly label their Internet sites with the subtitle "Against liberal Islam".

E. A. Cherepneva (IB RAS) made a report about the Orthodox Church in Indonesia, founded in the early 1990s, which is a new phenomenon in the confessional life of the country. The founder of the Orthodox Church in Indonesia, Archimandrite Daniel (Bambang Dwi Biantoro), is an Indonesian (Javanese) born in 1956, who grew up in a Muslim family, became a Protestant in his youth, and in 1983 became the first in Indonesia to convert to Orthodoxy. Archimandrite Daniel received a serious theological education in Europe and the United States. The first parish was established in Java in 1990. Currently, the Orthodox church community has about 2 thousand people and is recognized by the authorities. The sermons of fr. Daniel is distinguished by a "high level of catechesis." He pays special attention to the education of patriotism. His thoughts on the preaching of Orthodoxy in the Muslim community are interesting. Father Daniel speaks about the profound religiosity of the "Eastern man" and the unacceptability of atheism for Indonesians.

N. A. Tolmachev (Norma Publishing House) devoted his speech to the declaration of independence of East Timor, the last Portuguese colony, in May 2002. The new state-the Democratic Republic of East Timor (DRT) - is one of the poorest in the world and would not be viable without the help of the international community, which is promised to it in the amount of 0.5 billion dollars. Australia provides financial and other support by obtaining preferential rights for exploration and production of hydrocarbons within the DRVT economic zone. According to N. A. Tolmachev, in economic and, possibly, socio-political terms, the new state is more likely to gravitate towards Australia and Oceania, distancing itself from Indonesia, which until recently did not recognize the independence of East Timor. A special issue is the historically established cultural traditions and the preservation of so-called privileged relations with countries where the official language is Portuguese. More than four centuries of the colonial past are taking their toll. According to the Constitution of the DRVT, Portuguese and one of the local languages - tetum-are recognized as its official languages. Tolmachev believes that in the sphere of cultural relations of the Democratic People's Republic of Timor-Leste, at least in the near future, the focus will remain on the Portuguese-speaking countries that have supported East Timor's struggle for independence in recent decades.

Mikhail Gusev (Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences) described the current economic situation in Malaysia as favorable, primarily in the export sector, which allowed us to revise the forecast of GDP growth to 6% in 2002. instead of the previously expected 2.5%. Having withstood the crisis and stabilized political life, Malaysia has set a course for economic recovery. This is facilitated by the reorganization and improvement of the banking system. The state has created a Debt Restructuring Committee, which, in particular, buys out a significant part of the" problem debts " of large companies in order to prevent their bankruptcy. Credit conditions and the management system have improved. In 2001 and in 2002, the current account balance of payments was reduced to a positive balance. Foreign exchange reserves are growing, by mid-2002. they amounted to $ 32.7 billion. There is an increase in personal consumption. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.4%. Foreign investors are increasingly interested in Malaysia. According to some estimates, Malaysia, after South Korea, represents the most predictable and transparent financial market in Asia. The corporate sector got rid of excessive state tutelage. Foreign capital activity on the Malaysian Stock Exchange increased in 2002.

The overall favorable economic situation in the country does not mean that the factors that once led to internal political destabilization and affected the economy have been eliminated. Various forms of benefits and privileges for entrepreneurs associated with the ruling party - the United Malay National Organization and government circles-remain. The equilibrium reached so far is unstable, it is not stable.

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it is based on the authority of Mahathir Mohamad, whose imminent departure is inevitable. A change of leader can lead to economic destabilization and a possible slowdown in the pace of development.

"Malaysia and the problem of radicalism" is the topic of a speech by V. F. Urlyapov (IB RAS). The problem of Islamic radicalism is not related to the events of September 11, 2001 and the activities of the Al-Qaeda organization. To a decisive degree, it is caused by the heated debate that has been going on over the past decades about the main ways of the country's development: adherence to the current secular nationalism, which the ruling party insists on, or the creation of a state based on Quranic norms. The authorities proceed from the postulate that if the Islamic opposition is in favor of building a theocratic state in one form or another, then extremist elements are inevitably present in its ranks, seeking the violent overthrow of the legitimate government. This position gives grounds for a tough suppression of any manifestations of Islamic radicalism. For their part, Islamists, both moderate and radical, argue that secular nationalism is not able to adequately solve the problems of the country and the Muslim world as a whole, which, in their opinion, becomes especially obvious against the background of increasing globalization.

N. T. Burzhuyeva (Vostochny University at the Institute of International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences) discusses Malaysia's foreign economic relations. The growth of economic activity in 1999-2000 was followed by a certain decline, especially in the sphere of foreign economic relations. N. T. Burzhuyeva explains this by the general state of the world economy, the international and intraregional political situation, the threat of war in the Middle East, and other risk factors. As a result, the inflow of foreign capital to the real sector of the Malaysian economy has sharply decreased. In addition, the demand for electronic and electrical products, which accounted for up to 50% of the country's export revenue, fell, and the competitiveness of Malaysian goods declined due to their relatively high cost. The Malaysian Government continues its efforts to modernize the national economy.

The topic of the speech by E. V. Ivankina (IV RAS) is an important historical event for Indonesia and Southeast Asia. After more than 20 years of bloody confrontation between the Province of Aceh and the federal center, a peace agreement was signed between the Indonesian Government and the leadership of the Free Aceh Movement (GAM) on December 9, 2002. The adopted document should be the first step towards abandoning the use of force to resolve the conflict and switching to political methods of struggle. However, the separatists do not completely abandon their demands for independence. Given the importance of the economic potential of the disputed territory and the strong influence of the Islamic factor, the Government of the country proposed a project for granting a special status to Aceh. In particular, these are measures such as deducting to the local budget up to 70% of the profit from the revenues received from the exploitation of its natural resources (oil and natural gas) and the introduction of a Sharia court. The hard-won agreement is particularly important for maintaining the country's political stability in the run-up to the 2005 presidential election and potentially improving M. Sukarnoputri's chances of remaining in office for a second term.

In the next two presentations by O. G. Baryshnikova and Yu. O. Levtonova (Institute of Information Technology of the Russian Academy of Sciences) under the general title "The Philippines in conditions of increasing uncertainty of the influence of internal and external factors (2001 - 2002)", serious changes in the economic and political life of the country are considered. Mainly under the influence of the miscalculations of the administration headed by President G. Arroyo in the economic sphere, the implementation of the reform program for the reorganization of economic management is being held back. The team of G. Arroyo is having a hard time getting rid of the "legacy" left by the previous president, J. R. R. Tolkien. Pop music, especially from the corruption of officials and "cronyism". The socio-political situation contributed to the stagnation of the economy. In such circumstances, the government was unable to increase the pace of economic growth; stop the growth of the state budget deficit, which has become a barrier to reforms; start agricultural reforms; solve the problem of external debt (which is four times higher than foreign exchange reserves); implement the introduction of modern corporate governance. Extremely difficult internal and external conditions prevented the Government from meeting at least the main objectives of the economic reform program.

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Yu. O. Levtonova reviewed the state of political uncertainty in the Philippines. In international terms, the primary goal for the local political elite has been achieved -to return (of course, not on the scale that existed before the 1990s) to the priority of partnership relations with the United States, which provides the country with an American "security shield". But at the same time, the Arroyo City Administration faces complex challenges. First, the pro-American course should be implemented in such a way as not to cause increased distrust among the ASEAN partner countries (primarily Muslim ones), since the Philippines is not going to refuse to actively participate in regional integration processes. Secondly, if possible, avoid irritating the internal opposition, provoking it to explosions of anti-Americanism. At first, this tactic was largely justified. After the events of September 11, 2001, the majority of Filipinos (up to 80%) approved of rapprochement with the United States. But with the outbreak of the war in Iraq, the Philippines found itself in a difficult situation: there is a cooling of its relations with the ASEAN states, and inside the country there are fears of direct American involvement in combat operations in the Muslim South. All this worsens the already shaky position of Arroyo. Her policies are reform-oriented, but she has neither personal charisma nor strong political will. Therefore, the reforms are stalling. Add to this the activity of a diverse opposition and rampant violence in the country: in Christian areas - left-wing extremists, "urban guerrillas" and the seething Muslim South, far from being pacified (even with the help of the Americans).

The beginning of the 21st century, says E. M. Gurevich (Institute of History of the Russian Academy of Sciences), has once again raised the question of how to survive as a city-state in the context of the global transformation of the modern world. The country's leadership, responding to the challenges of the time, is developing a new economic strategy that involves the creation of knowledge-intensive industries based on information and communication technologies. In the long run, this should contribute to the transformation of Singapore into an "intellectual island" and the inclusion of the city-state in the new geo-economic world order. The complexity of the tasks set is determined not only by the extreme dependence of the city-state on the influence of external factors. When determining the optimal development vector for a country, the ruling elite should take into account both the accumulated potential of Singapore and the numerous growth constraints associated, in particular, with the small size of the territory and population, the lack of natural resources, and the peculiarities of the ethnic situation in Singapore itself and neighboring countries. The position of China's predominantly Singapore in the center of the Malay world continues to have a direct impact on the socio - political situation in the country. The increased activity of Muslim extremist organizations in Indonesia and Malaysia is fraught with aggravation of interethnic contradictions in Singapore, primarily between the Chinese and Malay communities.

M. G. Osinova's speech (IB RAS) is dedicated to the consistent and successful fight against corruption in Singapore, led by political leaders. International experts assign this state the first place in Asia in this indicator. The Corruption Investigation Bureau reports directly to the Prime Minister. Senior officials are not exempt from the need to comply with national laws and regulations. The fight against corruption in Singapore is based on the inevitability of punishment for illegal actions and transparency of decision-making both at the state level and at the internal corporate level. The law obliges citizens to declare their income. In general, for companies of various types and multinational corporations, the level of risks in Singapore is significantly lower than in most countries of the world. And this attracts foreign investors.

V. A. Dolnikova (ISAA at Moscow State University) noted in her report that in Thailand, the overcoming of the economic crisis and the weakening of the political struggle, which were observed during 2001-2002, are to some extent due to the preservation of the social stability of the rural population and the role that the peasantry, which currently makes up more than half of the population, plays in social and political life. The most strongly preserved features of Thai traditional society in the village (adherence to Buddhism, firmness of monarchical sentiments, as well as tolerance

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Social behavior and political preferences of various groups of both rural and urban populations are largely determined by the desire to achieve peaceful resolution of conflicts, etc. The economic, social, and cultural impulses emanating from the peasantry, which occupies an important place in Thai society, are skillfully taken into account by the ruling circles of Thailand. Addressing the urgent needs of the rural population is one of the most important activities of the current Government of Thaksin Chinnawat.

Elena Fomicheva (Institute of Political Science of the Russian Academy of Sciences) in her speech "Two Years of the Government of Prime Minister Thaksin Chinnawat" reviewed the current situation in Thailand, including its economic, political and foreign policy aspects, and followed the implementation of the proposals put forward by Thaksin Chinnawat during the election campaign two years ago to bring the country out of the economic crisis. The author came to the conclusion that it is still too early to talk about the success or failure of these extensive projects. The speaker also highlighted the foreign policy component of the Thaksin Shinawatra Government's policy, including relations with its neighbors (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar), Thailand's position in ASEAN, relations with major non-regional powers, primarily China, the United States, and Russia, as well as Thailand's position on the war against Iraq.

V. F. Vasiliev's speech (IB RAS) was dedicated to the ex-dictator of Burma, General Ne Win, who died at the age of 91 in December 2002. Ne Win's rule over the country began with a military coup in 1962 and lasted until 1988, when, after the failure of the "Burmese path to socialism" and in the context of the people's anti-dictatorial revolution, he was forced to resign, giving way to a new military junta. General Ne Win was undoubtedly the most powerful ruler of independent Burma, a dictatorial ruler who established the military type of regime in Burma as a supposedly permanent institution. It still exists today, causing internal tension and conflicts (military junta against the democratic opposition).

A. A. Simonia (IB RAS) highlighted some aspects of Myanmar's domestic and foreign policy in 2002. She called the release of opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi from house arrest the main event in the country's political life. However, this was not followed by the democratic changes promised by the Government, as well as real reforms in the economy. The necessary conditions for national reconciliation have not yet developed, and the ruling State Council for Peaceful Development is not yet engaged in a dialogue with the opposition party, the National League for Democracy. The continued economic sanctions imposed on Myanmar by the United States and the European Union (including accusations against a number of Western companies operating in the country) have a negative impact on Myanmar's economic situation and leave little hope for its recovery from isolation. However, there have been some recent developments in the development of Myanmar's economic and other ties with China and the ASEAN countries. For the first time in many decades, Myanmar has begun to actively cooperate with Russia in the economic, educational and military spheres. For example, in 2002, more than 1 thousand Burmese students studied at technical universities in Moscow.

A. P. Muranova (IB RAS) described the current socio - economic situation in Myanmar. According to official estimates, GDP growth in 2001-2002 was 9.4%. However, many foreign experts consider these data to be too high. So, according to representatives of the IMF, the increase did not exceed 6%. In a number of industries (agriculture, manufacturing, construction), there was an increase in production. At the same time, some extractive industries and the electric power industry were stagnating. In 2002, as in previous years, the financial situation was very tense - a huge state budget deficit, a rapid increase in inflation. According to official data, the growth rate was 20% in 2002. Prices for consumer goods continued to rise. At the official exchange rate of 64 zha for $ 1, the market rate was equal to 750 zha in February 2002, and 1010 zha in January 2003. Myanmar's per capita annual GDP is the lowest in Southeast Asia at $ 140 versus $ 2,000 in Thailand. The prospects for Myanmar's development in the coming years are not very favorable, which is explained not only by the government's isolationist policy, but also by the position of developed Western countries that have declared a boycott of it.

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According to S. I. Ioanesyan (Institute of Internal Affairs of the Russian Academy of Sciences), the efforts of the Lao government in 2002 were aimed at implementing an updated program of transformations in the socio-economic sphere. Under some pressure from international experts, it has begun to reorganize the most backward structures, primarily subsistence farms, and areas that are still ineffective-banking and finance, tax, and foreign trade. Such activities were quite successful, which, according to S. I. Ioanesyan, was the result of the implementation of new approaches of the state to economic construction, to the question of the relationship between private and public property, to the liberalization of international relations. In solving these complex tasks, the country's political leadership was able to take into account its own erroneous actions that took place during the crisis, as well as use the help of foreign partners. According to experts of a number of organizations, the first stage of building a market economy in Laos was successful. Over the two years of the five-year plan, economic growth has exceeded that of even the more developed neighboring countries. The socio-political situation in the country remained calm.

The report by G. F. Murasheva (IB RAS) shows Vietnam's attitude to globalization as an ambiguous process in its consequences. The points of view of some Vietnamese political scientists who see the roots of globalization in the colonial policy of Western powers are given. The article considers the forms of Vietnam's participation in the processes of economic globalization, which is important for the implementation of the strategic task of industrialization and modernization. In particular, Ms. Murasheva noted that the question of Vietnam's accession to the WTO in 2005 is still open due to the weak competitiveness of the Vietnamese economy and the country's overall backwardness. According to G. F. Murasheva, Vietnam currently has no objective prerequisites for forcing its accession to the WTO and the associated fulfillment of a number of obligations that may harm the country's national interests.

A. A. Sokolov (Institute of History of the Russian Academy of Sciences) 'Vietnam - Culture - 2002' considered some aspects of cultural life in Vietnam. Cultural policy is still directed by the State, but the degree of its participation in the country's cultural life has noticeably decreased compared to previous periods. However, the state retains its main function - ideological control. Many cultural processes are regulated in accordance with the conditions of a market economy. We can say that art and literature are still in a certain state of transition, which is associated with the new economic situation in the country.

"The economy of Vietnam in 2001-2002" is the subject of a report by G. V. Birina (Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences). Despite the extremely unfavorable situation in the global economy, she noted, Vietnam managed to maintain the GDP growth rate in 2001 at 4.8%, and in 2002-at 5.2% (according to other data-7.4%). Relatively high economic growth rates (the second largest in Asia after China) were achieved due to political stability, a steady increase in domestic demand and the creation of a favorable climate for domestic and external investors. Non-state sectors in the sphere of industrial production and capital construction developed most dynamically in 2001-2002. Products produced in the private sector and enterprises with foreign capital accounted for 60% of the country's total industrial output in 2002. Vietnam's agriculture sector experienced a sharp drop in rice production in 2001 compared to 2000. This is mainly due to the chaotic release of part of the arable land for the cultivation of other, more profitable, agricultural crops. Political stability, steps taken by the Government to improve the investment climate, effective December 2001. The US-Vietnam bilateral trade agreement is the main factor underlying the growing interest of potential investors in Vietnam. In early 2003, one of the world's leading rating agencies, Moody's, upgraded Vietnam's credit rating from B1 (negative outlook) to VaZ (stable outlook). There is a hope to get a Bal credit rating, i.e. an investment grade rating, in the near future. This can significantly increase the inflow of new investments into the country's economy.

Summing up the conference, Dmitry Mosyakov noted the relevance of the topic of reports and speeches devoted to acute and controversial problems of development of the Southeast Asian region in the context of economic and political globalization.

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