After the normalization of Soviet-Chinese relations in the late 1980s, they generally developed quite dynamically and comprehensively. In the mid-1990s, the term "strategic partnership" appeared, reflecting a fairly high level of development of political ties and mutual understanding between the PRC and the new Russia. A landmark event in the history of Russian-Chinese relations was the Treaty of Good Neighborliness, Friendship and Cooperation signed in 2001 by Vladimir Putin and Jiang Zemin. In the middle of the first decade of the new century, new heights were reached in the development of political dialogue, which, in particular, was reflected in the joint declarations of 2005, 2006 and 2007. Nevertheless, despite all the achievements, the main one among which could be called a high level of mutual trust between the parties, and a rather diverse structure of cooperation, it would be a simplification to assume that Russian-Chinese relations are completely devoid of structural flaws and serious problems. In this article, we will try to compare the existing achievements and some acute problems in relations between the two countries, as well as formulate some suggestions for further ways to develop the Russian-Chinese dialogue.
PARTNERSHIP ATMOSPHERE
The visit of the Russian President to China in March 2006 may be called a turning point by future historians. It's not just that very important documents were signed and serious agreements were reached during the visit. One gets the impression that in the mid-2000s, the period in Russian-Chinese relations that some Chinese observers rightly characterized as "a lot of good words, few good deeds" was finally completed. In contrast to this position-
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However, the parties approached the 2006 meeting with major concrete developments. Complex economic problems in a number of areas, in particular in the energy sector, have been met with breakthrough solutions. The strategic nature of Russian-Chinese cooperation, which was declared more than a decade ago, is finally gaining clearer contours and new positive dynamics.
In the 2006 declaration, the parties clearly defined the basis of relations. Russia and China "will promote the development of bilateral relations by adhering to the following basic principles: mutual respect, equality, mutual support and full promotion of political mutual trust; complementarity, mutual benefit and mutual favor, taking into account the long-term perspective, striving for joint development; mutual exchange of experience, expansion of humanitarian contacts, strengthening the social base of bilateral relations" [Joint Declaration]. declaration..., 2006].
Specific agreements reached in 2006 include the establishment of sub-commissions on environmental cooperation and civil aviation cooperation within the China-Russia commission for the preparation of regular meetings of Heads of Government. Consultations on strategic security issues at the level of the leadership of the State Council of the People's Republic of China and the leadership of the Security Council of the Russian Federation have become a new important channel of interstate dialogue. It was decided to continue discussing major international issues affecting the national security interests of the People's Republic of China and the Russian Federation. Earlier, in the 2005 declaration, it was emphasized that the parties will adhere to the policy of coordinating and deepening strategic cooperation in foreign policy affairs in order to create a favorable international environment [Joint Declaration..., 2005]. In addition, the parties expressed their intention to continue strengthening inter-parliamentary ties, which play an important role in the development of bilateral relations. The Chinese and Russian Heads of State noted with satisfaction that over the past period, the Federation Council and the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation have established commissions for cooperation with the National People's Congress to promote inter-parliamentary exchanges.
It should be particularly noted that the PRC and the Russian Federation are among the few states that no longer have territorial differences between them. As noted in the 2006 declaration, " the parties agree that the final delimitation of the Sino-Russian state border, as well as the successful implementation over the past ten years of agreements on confidence-building measures in the military field and mutual reduction of armed forces in the border area, as well as on the joint economic use of individual islands and islands, should be considered as the border rivers adjacent to them, contributed to the transformation of the border between the two states into a border of peace and friendship. The favorable atmosphere in the border area stimulated further strengthening of cross-border and interregional ties and cooperation" [Joint Declaration..., 2006].
In other words, it is no exaggeration to call the current atmosphere of Russian-Chinese partnership exceptionally favorable. This, in turn, creates a solid foundation for diverse cooperation, and for solving the problems that inevitably arise in the course of cooperation, as well as the complex interaction of both partners in the global market.
MUTUAL TRADE
At the beginning of the new century, there was a very dynamic growth of Russian-Chinese trade. Its growth rate was much higher than the growth rate of world trade (Table 1). 1), they are
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Table 1
China's trade with Russia, billion dollars, 2000-2007
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
China's exports
2.2
2.7
3.5
6.0
9.1
13.2
15.4
28.7
Import of China
5.8
8.0
8.4
9.7
12.1
15.9
17.9
19.4
Trade Turnover
8.0
10.7
11.9
15.7
21.2
29.1
33.3
48.1
Turnover growth, %
40.0
33.0
11.8
32.1
34.7
37.1
17.1
44.3
Source: Haiguan Tongji (Customs Statistics) for the corresponding years.
They were also slightly higher than the rather high growth rates of foreign trade of each of the partners. As a result, the share of each country in the partner market has also slightly increased against the background of strengthening the positions of Russia and China in international trade. At the same time, the latter indicator remains relatively modest: Trade with Russia accounts for just over 2% of China's total external trade turnover, while the same indicator for Russia is about 10%. Note, however, that these figures, taken from official statistics of the People's Republic of China, do not fully reflect the economic significance of the partners for each other. They do not take into account a significant part of unorganized ("shuttle") trade, deliveries of Chinese goods to Russia through third countries, as well as Russian sales to China carried out within the framework of military-technical cooperation. Taking these additional components into account, the total figure of actual trade between the two countries can be increased by about one and a half times.
As can be seen from the above data, in 2003-2005 there was a sharp acceleration in the growth rate of China's exports to Russia. Thus, in 2003 the increase was over 70%, in 2004 - 51%, in 2005-45%. In 2006, the growth rate of China's exports to Russia decreased markedly, although it was over 21%. According to preliminary data for 2007, export growth was rapid, reaching about 80%.
The high dynamics of mutual trade can be attributed to several factors. First, the growth rate of Chinese exports as a whole (almost 30% per year) was very significant during this period (2003 - 2007). Second, Russian imports also grew rapidly, driven by high export revenues. It can be said that the continued high price competitiveness of the Chinese economy (despite the 12% appreciation of the yuan against the dollar over the past two years) has been particularly pronounced in the Russian direction, which has its positive and negative sides. Russian consumers seem to have benefited, but the losses of manufacturers from competition with cheap imports are also obvious, primarily in the light industry and mechanical engineering sectors. It should also be noted that unlike China's trade with other CIS countries, Russian-Chinese trade is well balanced. In 2007, the Russian media published disturbing comments about the fact that for the first time in many years, China's trade with the Russian Federation has developed a balance of trade asset. At the same time, China's exports to other CIS countries have long and far exceeded imports from there: in 2006. The corresponding figures were $ 17.4 billion and $ 5.2 billion.
If we proceed from the logic of the theory of comparative advantages, then the dynamic expansion of trade with China is largely beneficial to Russia: costs and losses should be recouped by interacting with a fast-growing market with a high level of competition. This logic has largely determined the current intention of both sides to significantly increase the volume of mutual trade in the coming years. In 2010, it is planned to increase the trade turnover to 60-80 billion dollars, there is no doubt,
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that this goal will be achieved. The need for accelerated development of economic ties with China also seems to stem from new trends in Russian policy, which links major projects in the eastern part of the country with strengthening cooperation with Asian countries. Finally, the intensification of Russian-Chinese economic cooperation can be seen as an attempt to overcome the gap that developed in the 1990s: suffice it to note that in those years, Russia's trade with China was stagnant, and its volume in 1999 was even slightly lower than in 1992. that period is lost to Russia.
Russia's plans to accelerate the development of trade with China are also justified by the fact that the transformation of this country into a world workshop promises steadily growing sales of a wide range of export products and services, and the likelihood of concluding very large contracts. The import of equipment from China (which is usually significantly cheaper than its Western counterparts), in turn, can make a significant contribution to the ongoing modernization of the Russian industry. Some hopes are also pinned on the fact that China is increasingly exporting capital: Chinese investment could significantly improve the situation in a number of sectors of the Russian economy.
At the same time, the rapid expansion of economic cooperation with China draws attention to the quality of mutual ties, their infrastructure support, accumulated problems and shortcomings of cooperation. It is clear that the growing scale of cooperation makes important even relatively small details, in the careful analysis of which both businessmen of both parties and regulators are interested.
TRADE STRUCTURE AND COOPERATION ISSUES
Russian experts note with regret that the growth of Russian exports to China has occurred in recent years, with a constant deterioration in its structure in terms of the share of goods with a high degree of processing (Table 2). The share of machinery and equipment declined sharply, and the share of raw materials increased significantly. And it's not just about rising energy prices. It is obvious that unfavorable changes in the structure of Russian exports reflect a general decline in the competitiveness of the Russian manufacturing industry. A negative role is played by the low activity of Russian equipment manufacturers in the Chinese market. The position of Russian steel companies has worsened. One of the reasons for this situation is the rapid expansion of its own capacity in China in recent years. The export of wood is dominated by the supply of "round wood", the share of sawn timber is extremely low. In general, Russia's exports to China are characterized by a rather narrow and narrowing nomenclature. Its refinement looks relevant, but very difficult task: Chinese partners are already used to raw materials supplies from Russia and are not very interested in the appearance of processing units in the Russian territory.
A sharp decline in the share of machine-building products in exports from Russia to China worries many, often concluding that Russia is " turning into a raw material appendage of China." However, in reality, everything is not so bad, the figures we have given do not take into account the supply of technologically complex military equipment to China. As is known, Russian investment in Russia increased from $ 5.4 billion in 2003 to $ 6.5 billion in 2006 [BIKI, 05.06.2007] - about half of this volume is accounted for in the PRC.
It is important that both sides are ready to solve this problem. The 2007 Joint Declaration contains the following provision: "There is still a need to continue coordinated and purposeful steps to improve the quality and level of trade and economic cooperation, since the significant potential of interaction in a number of important areas, primarily in the trade of machinery and equipment, the establishment of industrial cooperation in the region, is far from fully developed.
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Table 2
Structure of Russian exports to China, 2000-2006, %
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Fuel and petroleum products
13.5
10.2
15.3
21.5
34.5
38.1
55.7
Wood and wood products
14.8
13.3
18.2
15.7
16.3
15.3
12.1
Ferrous and non-ferrous metals
31.3
20.6
16.4
25.0
16.9
15.2
5.7
Fertilizers and chemical products
20.3
16.3
18.7
15.1
17.1
16.2
11.7
Fish and seafood
6.0
6.1
7.4
6.8
6.4
7.4
6.8
Machinery and equipment
4.5
28.7
20.1
12.9
4.8
2.6
1.2
Ores, slags, and ash
0.2
0.3
0.5
0.4
2.1
3.2
2.0
Other products
9.4
4.2
3.9
3.0
1.9
2.0
4.8
Source: Haiguan Tongji (Customs Statistics) for the corresponding years.
high-tech industries" [Joint Declaration..., 2007]. To meet this challenge, the China-Russia Chamber of Commerce for the Promotion of Trade in Machinery and Innovative Products was established in 2007 with the participation of more than 200 large enterprises from both sides.
In terms of a number of raw materials, Russian supplies are vital for the Chinese economy. In 2005, Russia ranked fifth among oil exporters to the Chinese market (9.5% of supplies) - after Saudi Arabia, Iran, Oman and Angola, in 2006 it came in fourth place. In the same year, Russia accounted for 72% of all Chinese imports of roundwood in physical terms. Fish and seafood imported from Russia account for about 40% of total Chinese imports of these goods.
Note, however, the trend towards a sharp decline in Russian sales of ferrous and non-ferrous metals in the Chinese market. This is due to general trends: the growth of self-sufficiency in these products in China, as well as its entry into the number of leading exporters in some positions. For example, in 2006, China surpassed Russia and Ukraine in steel exports. From 26 million tons in 2005, the Chinese export of these products increased to 49 million tons; 34 million tons (again, more than in Russia and Ukraine separately) were steel exports from Japan [BIKI, 07.04.2007].
In contrast to Russian exports, Chinese exports are widely diversified, and machine-building products, including electrical and electronic goods, are steadily gaining weight in their structure (Table 3). The predominance of consumer goods in Chinese exports as a whole illustrates another weakness
Table 3
Structure of Russian imports from China, 2000-2006, %
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Machinery and equipment
8.2
11.0
15.8
17.6
17.2
20.1
27.2
Textiles, clothing, leather goods, furs
51.6
48.4
40.0
47.1
49.2
42.3
31.6
Footwear
15.4
14.1
13.7
9.0
8.8
10.1
9.2
Chemical products and fuels
7.0
6.8
6.1
5.9
6.2
7.3
7.8
Food products
5.7
6.5
10.1
7.2
5.0
5.0
3.5
Toys and sporting goods
1.4
1.8
2.4
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.8
Metal products
0.5
0.5
0.7
0.7
1.2
1.6
1.6
Other products
10.2
10.9
11.2
10.7
8.2
9.2
17.3
Source: Haiguan Tongji (Customs Statistics) for the corresponding years.
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Russian-Chinese cooperation: low level of cooperation in industry and intra-industry division of labor - the main engines of modern international trade. At the same time, this circumstance can be considered evidence of a significant potential for the development of bilateral cooperation, especially if the volume of mutual investments increases. Positive developments in this area include the entry of Chinese companies into the Russian automotive industry in 2005.
At the same time, the fundamental differences in the investment climate in the two countries cannot but affect bilateral cooperation in the field of investment. The conditions created in the Chinese economy, which are extremely favorable for industrial investment, also have an impact on Russian business: there are cases of transferring light industry capacities to China. The Russian industry remains unattractive for Chinese businessmen, in addition, unjustified barriers are often erected here, in particular for the industrial assembly of Chinese cars, which clearly does not benefit the Russian consumer. Investment cooperation on Russian territory does not always mean real industrial cooperation: often joint ventures in this area only mask the actual specialization in the import and sale of Chinese goods. In general, China's trade with Russia has a low share of operations based on tolling processing (about 10%), which again indicates a weak development of modern forms of division of labor between partners.
Another problem of Russian-Chinese trade is the low quality control of imported goods and customs administration. A high share of unorganized trade causes massive underestimation of customs value and violations in the payment of customs duties. In some cases, trade between countries is conducted through intermediaries, which reduces its benefits for both sides.
Experts also consider banking settlements, trade arbitration, and export credit insurance to be bottlenecks in Russian-Chinese cooperation. Mechanisms for resolving and preventing mutual claims are insufficient. There are problems with migration: the employment structure and skills of migrants from China do not meet the needs of the economy of the eastern regions of Russia. The trade infrastructure, both transport and information, does not meet modern needs either. Transport operations are affected by the insufficient capacity of railways and automobile routes, the level of cargo turnover maintenance is low, and time costs are high when crossing the border. Information barriers make it difficult for small and medium-sized businesses to operate or prevent them from starting, as well as cause violations of the legislation of both countries.
PROSPECTS FOR INTERACTION
Regulators in both countries continue to work together. In particular, a plan for the development of Russian-Chinese economic cooperation until 2012 is being prepared. An important place in the joint plans is given to increasing the export of energy resources from Russia to China. To expand supplies, it is planned to develop oil fields in Eastern Siberia and the Far East, and develop various options for transporting additional volumes of Russian oil to China. Taking into account the general capabilities of the oil fields of Eastern Siberia, Russia could, according to experts of the two ministries, annually export to China about 25-30 million tons of East Siberian oil from 2010. In addition, the development of oil fields on the Sakhalin shelf is another way to increase oil supplies from Russia to China. According to preliminary estimates, by 2010, the first stage of the Sakhalin shelf will produce up to 20 million tons of oil per year.
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at the second stage - 7.5 million tons. It is assumed that until 2010, the main oil supplies will be carried out in the coastal areas in southern China. In July 2005, the oil-producing companies Rosneft and KNK (Chinese Oil and Gas Company) signed an agreement on joint development of the third stage of the Sakhalin shelf. Two more agreements between Russian oil companies and KNK were signed in March 2006 during Vladimir Putin's visit to China. In 2007, an agreement was reached on the supply of Russian oil to China through Kazakhstan's oil pipelines.
In accordance with the new Russian-Chinese agreements, Russia will start large-scale deliveries of pipeline natural gas to China at the beginning of the next decade, the volume of which can be increased to 80 billion cubic meters. m per year. It is also possible to start supplying liquefied natural gas and coal from Russia to China. Experts in Russia and China believe that in 2010, coal exports from Russia to China may reach 30 million tons.
In July 2005, the national energy companies of the two countries signed an agreement on long-term cooperation. The project of the "energy bridge" between Russia and China provides that in 2008 - 2012, electricity supplies to China will reach 10-20 billion kWh. In addition, there are significant opportunities to expand the supply of power equipment to China from Russia, as well as the participation of Russian companies in the construction of power facilities in China.
Until 2010, China will remain an importer of iron ore, manganese, chromium, copper, bauxite, zinc, nickel, gold, as well as fluorspar, sulfur, and potash salts. Russia has the capacity to meet some of this demand.
Russia's specialization in fuel and raw materials on the world market is also fully manifested in trade with China. At the same time, the joint documents note the possibility of improving Russian exports, i.e. increasing the share of products with high added value in it. The obvious ways to overcome the negative trends in the structure of trade in goods for Russia seem to be the intensification of cooperation, as well as the development of new forms of cooperation, especially the rapid expansion of trade in services. The parties ' plans, in particular, include encouraging large enterprises to organize deep wood processing in the Russian territory and broad cooperation in the industries that produce woodworking equipment. Attention is also paid to the joint fight against illegal logging and export of timber to China.
In the transport engineering industry, there is a potential for complementarity in the shipbuilding industry, and the opportunity to continue cooperation in the design and production of short - and medium-haul aircraft, as well as a promising transport helicopter. In general, in the mechanical engineering industry, much depends on closer interaction between the parties, establishing mechanisms for combining investment with technology trade. Regular exhibition events, the exchange of information on tenders, the creation of industry unions of entrepreneurs, simplified customs regulation for goods with high added value, and export credits are needed. One of the ways to increase trade in machine-building products could be the participation of Russian enterprises in the modernization of the old industrial base in northeast China, the development of which is given special attention in Beijing's current plans.
There is still an extensive potential for cooperation in the production of agricultural products and their high-quality processing, joint use of land and labor resources of the parties, as well as trade in agricultural machinery. The parties are interested in scientific and technical cooperation in the field of agriculture, regularization of the use of marine resources in border areas, China goto-
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We are ready to invest in fish processing enterprises of the Russian Far East.
Achieving the bilateral trade growth goals set for 2010 will require increased investment in the reconstruction of railways and highways, ports, border stations and their entrances, warehouses, etc. Such investments promise quick returns through both bilateral trade and transit traffic between European and Asian markets. This will also strengthen the internal integration of the Russian market.
Good opportunities for bilateral cooperation are open in the field of construction services. China has a rich and useful experience in high-density urban development, is ready to invest in housing construction and the construction materials industry in Russia, and is also interested in significantly increasing the scale of contract work in the Russian Federation.
Cooperation between the banks of the two countries is developing. The agenda includes expanding the scope of payments in national currencies, creating a single mechanism for selecting projects for co-financing, and activating export lending.
Cooperation between the parties in the field of communications and information technologies has good prospects. Russia has accumulated extensive experience in the field of satellite communications, air traffic management, creation of electronic components, and fundamental research in the theory of information technologies. China has developed significant advantages in the field of mobile and optical communications, the production of programmable switches, color TVs, flash cards, etc.There is mutual complementarity, which can become the basis for enterprises to enter each other's markets and joint developments. In July 2004, China Telecom and Rostelecom signed an agreement on the construction of a high-capacity fiber-optic communication line between Heihe and Blagoveshchensk, which will not only meet the demand of both countries, but also provide information communication services between Europe and Asia. China Satcom and FSUE Kosmicheskaya Svyaz actively promote satellite communication services of both countries to the markets of third countries.
Technology trade and joint development is gradually developing. A joint high - tech base in Yantai has been operating since 1998, and a high-tech park in Jiuhua has been operating since 2001. The Russian-Chinese high-tech park at the Moscow Power Engineering Institute was recently organized.
The tourism industry has significant growth potential. In 2004, about 800,000 Chinese citizens visited Russia, twice the number of Russians who visited China. In 2006, the number of Russians who visited China reached 2.2 million, while the number of Chinese tourists in Russia slightly decreased to 770 thousand.
According to Chinese experts, high prices of hotels and transport in Russia, lack of infrastructure aimed at tourists from China, and the absence of a Russian representative office for tourism in China are factors that hinder tourism. At the same time, Chinese businesses are ready to invest in this industry, and much can be done on a joint basis.
The development of the market of educational services for young citizens of both countries is also promising. In 2002, according to the Ministry of Education of the People's Republic of China, 12 thousand Chinese students studied in Russia, and this number tends to grow. In 2006 it was already 15 thousand, 5 thousand. The Russians studied in China in the same year. It is predicted that in the medium term, the number of Chinese students in Russia will reach 40 thousand people. The popularity of studying China is also growing in Russia. It is obvious that the further dynamic and versatile development of trade and economic ties between the two countries will impose a growing demand for professionals who speak Russian and Chinese, and their shortage is acutely felt at the present time.
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* * *
In recent years, various sub-commissions on cooperation, individual departments and companies established under the Commission for the Preparation of Regular Meetings of the Heads of Government of China and Russia have played an important role in improving the mechanisms of bilateral trade and investment. However, their efforts alone seem to be insufficient. Given the growing importance of Russian-Chinese economic cooperation, as well as its relatively low quality characteristics, it is necessary to conduct a broad research and frank discussion of the problems of our relations, identify the points of view of Chinese partners, and thoroughly analyze the accumulated experience. In just a few years, China may become Russia's main trading partner, so the contours of bilateral cooperation that are emerging today deserve special attention.
At the same time, the achievements of the two countries in the field of political mutual understanding should be used to build truly beneficial economic ties between both countries. It is important that they have a strategic component - i.e. focus on the long-term interests of the parties, and large contracts should be carefully calculated and entered into national development programs. The farms of two neighboring countries can and should cooperate on the basis of the principle of good neighborliness, and special relations are quite possible between them. Such special relations should gradually be extended to all members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, helping to strengthen the organization's position in the global economy, including by increasing collective self-sufficiency, developing infrastructure in the interior of Asia, and working in a coordinated manner in the global market.
list of literature
Joint Declaration of the People's Republic of China and the Russian Federation on International Order in the Twenty-first Century. Xinhua. 03.07.2005.
Joint Declaration of the People's Republic of China and the Russian Federation. Xinhua, 24.03.2006.
Joint Declaration of the People's Republic of China and the Russian Federation. Xinhua, 26.03.2007.
Bulletin of Foreign Commercial Information (BCI). 05.06.2007.
Bulletin of Foreign Commercial Information (BCI). 07.04.2007.
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