On November 25, 2015, the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences hosted a scientific inter-institute conference "New Trends in US Policy in East, Southeast Asia and the South Pacific Region", organized by the Center for Southeast Asia, Australia and Oceania of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The event was attended by employees of the Institute and scientists from other research and educational institutions: the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO RAS), the Higher School of Economics( HSE), the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies (RISS), the Institute of the Far East (IDV RAS) and the Institute of Asia and Africa (ISAA MSU).

The conference focused on US policy in the region, new trends due to the "pivot to Asia" course, global issues such as the fight against terrorism and the confrontation between China and other countries in the conflict over the South China Sea, and US interests and position on this issue. The reports examined US policy towards Indonesia, Myanmar, Cambodia, Thailand, the Philippines, and others.

Opening the conference, Deputy Chairman of the Board of Directors. E. V. Molodyakova, Director of the Institute of Information Technology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, noted that the topic of scientific discussion is of great interest. She stressed that the issues of this conference are also important for other scientific departments of the Institute, since the policy of "turning to Asia" affects many countries of Greater East Asia.

The conference was held in two sections. In the first section, reports were presented on general intraregional problems in the context of interaction with the United States, and in the second section, American policy trends in individual countries of East and South - East Asia and the South Pacific at the present stage.

The first section was opened by D. V. Mosyakov, Head of the Center for Southeast Asia, Australia and Oceania of the Institute of International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, who delivered a report on "The main goals of American Policy in East and Southeast Asia". Southeast Asia has long been the focus of American politics since the end of the First Indochina War. The second Indochina War turned this region into a zone of vital US interests. The defeat in Vietnam and the withdrawal from Indochina put the region on the periphery of American interests for a long time. However, the transformation of China into a dominant power, the expansion of the PRC in the South China Sea and in Southeast Asia as a whole has led to an obvious challenge to the interests of the United States as a global leader, which forces the American authorities to turn back to Southeast Asia and the entire Asia-Pacific region. The return of the United States to Southeast Asia was due to three factors: a change in the overall US strategy towards China; the interest of influential political and economic circles in most countries of the region in contacts with the United States; and the intransigence of China's position on territorial disputes over the South China Sea.

The speaker outlined the goals of the new US policy in the region, the hedging policy formulated by X. Clinton's goals are: first, to create a network of alliances with Southeast Asian countries in opposition to China; and second, to enter regional economic free markets by creating a free trade zone that would strengthen the role of China in the region.

Ekaterina ASTAFIEVA-Research Associate at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, katy-ast@yandex.ru;

PANARINA Darya Sergeevna-Candidate of Cultural Studies, Researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, yahiko@rambler.ru.

and, conversely, it has weakened national governments; third, it has increased its military capabilities in the region. In conclusion, Dmitry Mosyakov noted that the first goal was achieved to the greatest extent at this stage. The creation of a free trade area is under multi-year negotiations. The increase in the US military potential in the Southern Military District has not yet been observed.

A. A. Rogozhin (IMEMO RAS) in his report "The United States in Southeast Asia and Russian Interests" noted that the countries of the region generally respond positively to the expansion of the American presence in Southeast Asia, as evidenced by the conclusion of the ASEAN Strategic Partnership Agreement with the United States, signed on November 21, 2015, and the adoption of the ASEAN Summit program for its implementation in 2016-2020 The speaker clarified the reasons for such a reaction of the countries of the region and expressed confidence that Russia does not yet need to conclude a similar agreement with ASEAN, because the Russian Federation builds relations with the countries of the region mainly on a bilateral basis.

The report analyzed the goals that the Southeast Asian countries pursue in relations with the United States in three areas: military-political, diplomatic and economic, as well as potential threats to Russian interests in Southeast Asia that may arise as a result of the expansion of the American presence in the region. The most significant of them is the appearance of American oil and especially liquefied natural gas on the energy market of Southeast Asia.

N. B. Lebedeva's presentation on the topic "New National Naval Strategy of the United States in the light of the problems of the South China Sea" was devoted to the analysis of the new US naval strategy - " Joint Strategy of the XXI Century "(CS 21/15), and the documents of the report " PLA Navy. New Opportunities and Combat Missions in the 21st Century" and "A New Maritime Security Strategy for the Asia-Pacific Region". Their differences from the previous maritime strategy of 2007 "Global Maritime Partnership" and the motives for its development in the context of global and regional shifts at sea, as well as key implementation mechanisms (from increasing the number of warships, searching for new locations for their deployment, and modern re-equipment due to high-tech drones and aircraft carriers) were shown. The speaker noted that the new American strategy is characterized by a more powerful forceful approach to conflict resolution and the use of the principle of "All domain access", or free access to all areas - on land, in the air, at sea, and in cyberspace. N. B. Lebedeva focused on how these areas of the US maritime strategy are refracted in the future. The South China Sea and how measures for their implementation are formulated with individual ASEAN member countries.

N. G. Rogozhina (IMEMO RAS) in her report "The role of the United States in counterterrorism activities in Southeast Asian countries" analyzed the reasons why the United States began to cooperate with Southeast Asian countries in countering the threat of terrorism after September 11, 2001. The Southeast Asian countries were forced to balance the need to cooperate with an influential political player in the international arena on an issue that had they have different degrees of priority, and they should be especially careful, given the anti-American sentiment in the Muslim society, some of which perceived the US anti-terrorist actions as an attempt to weaken Islam. This also predetermined various forms of cooperation with the United States. But no Southeast Asian country that has faced the problem of terrorism has refused to cooperate with the United States, largely for economic and geopolitical reasons, in particular to maintain the balance of power in the region. The speaker revealed the specifics of cooperation between the United States and various countries in the region in the implementation of counterterrorism activities.

The presentation " ISIS in Southeast Asia in Modern American Politics "was prepared by E. A. Panaev and S. V. Demidenko (both at the Higher School of Economics). E. A. Kanaev noted that in the last two years, ISIS, or the Islamic Caliphate, has become a new" jihad university " for radical Islamists in Southeast Asia. This circumstance, in addition to the prospect of destabilization of the situation in certain Southeast Asian countries, complicates the implementation of the Association's main promising project-the formation of the ASEAN Community. Trying to stop the influence of ISIL in Southeast Asia, ASEAN promotes the idea of a "global movement of moderates"in the global information space. Trying to enlist the support of external partners, the Association counts on the assistance of the United States. However, Washington does not provide targeted support to the "global movement of moderates", carried out on a sustainable and long-term basis. The experience of the US counterterrorism strategy in the Middle East cannot be transferred to Southeast Asia for effective counteraction to the growing global threat.-

ISIL's influence there. The latter is quite acceptable to the United States as it objectively meets American priorities for maintaining "controlled chaos" in the modern world.

G. M. Lokshin (IDV RAS), in his report "The South China Sea: Escalating tensions in 2015", drew attention to the cyclical nature of the escalation and subsiding of the conflict around islands and reefs in the South China Sea. The new escalation comes amid a clash of interests between China and the United States. The United States, which has taken on the role of "sheriff", a human rights activist in the region, is pushing for the preservation of free commercial navigation in the South China Sea. China, for its part, has repeatedly stated that it does not intend to interfere with the freedom of trade in the waters of the South China Sea. In fact, the United States seeks to have the possibility of" peaceful passage " in the South China Sea, i.e., in fact, to use this right to conduct intelligence activities, emphasizing that this is a peaceful activity. Naturally, China cannot allow this to happen.

In conclusion, the speaker concluded that all parties involved in the conflict in the South China Sea are playing a double game. At the same time, neither side is interested in unleashing a war, and, therefore, the situation will develop in the same mode, the initiative will remain in the hands of China, and over time the United States will have to reckon with this.

L. V. Gladchenko (RISS) in his report "ASEAN in the context of US-China rivalry at the present stage" focused on the fact that the current stage of development of the situation in the Asia-Pacific region (APR) is characterized by the activation of China in the economic and political spheres, as well as a new "pivot" of the United States to Asia, partly designed to limit Beijing's activity. The speaker outlined the position of the ASEAN countries in the context of increasing competition between the United States and China for leadership in the Asia-Pacific region. ASEAN is facing new serious challenges that put on the agenda the question of the place and role of this "collective leader" and the regional multilateral formats created by it in the political and economic space of the Asia-Pacific region. Members of the Association, following their "counter-leader tactics", which have repeatedly brought success in the past, are stepping up efforts to curb the ambitions of world powers.

L. V. Gladchenko considered the questions of how the regional leadership structure will be transformed in the future development of East Asia and the Asia-Pacific region: will one dominant player (presumably China) become its personification when other participants in regional processes are subordinated to it, or will it be determined by confrontational relations between the United States and China; will ASEAN be able to maintain its "centrality"? in the Asia-Pacific region. It cannot be ruled out that the development of the situation in this region will be determined by a new type of relationship in the US-China triangle of ASEAN, which did not exist in the previous period.

The work of the second section of the conference was opened by the moderator of the section A. Drugov (IB RAS), who devoted his speech to the topic "Perception of United States policy by Indonesia". Indonesia's attitude to U.S. policy is shaped by at least four major factors. First, the role of the United States in world politics and the economy. Secondly, the self-identification of Indonesia as the political center of Southeast Asia and, in the future, one of the leading players on the world stage (nationalism with a touch of great power). Third, the very ambiguous experience of relations with the United States at different stages of the history of independent Indonesia. Fourth, China's current policy in the Asia-Pacific region.

Drugov stressed that Indonesia, on the one hand, has learned from the events in Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Egypt: if necessary, Washington will use the country's internal difficulties to change the regime if Jakarta turns out to be "too" ungovernable. On the other hand, China's claims in the South China Sea at the very borders of Indonesia, and with them the US - China contradictions, in which Jakarta does not want to be drawn in any way. Under these circumstances, the government of President Joko Widodo has chosen a position of equidistance, pursuing a policy of preserving peace and safe navigation in the South China Sea, developing trade and economic ties with the United States and China in every possible way, while strengthening the country's defense potential, in particular at the exit to the South China Sea.

In her report "Myanmar elections and Future Relations with the United States and China", A. A. Simonia (Institute of Foreign Policy of the Russian Academy of Sciences) reviewed the results of the parliamentary elections held on November 8, 2015 in Myanmar and their likely impact on the country's foreign policy. The opposition National League for Democracy party won the election, winning 887 seats out of 1,150 in the Parliament of the Republic of the Union of Myanmar and regional legislative assemblies. Thus, she was able to elect the president of the country in three months and form a new government.

government. In the past five years, Myanmar has become an object of competition between the United States and China. It remains a mystery how the new government's relations with these powers will develop. The speaker believes that despite the fact that the leader of the victorious opposition, Aung San Suu Kyi, is mentally closer to the West and despite the growing influence of the United States in Myanmar, internal and external factors will not allow her to make a choice in favor of the United States at the expense of China. Aung San Suu Kyi has repeatedly demonstrated that for her as a pragmatic politician, the main thing is state interests, which was confirmed during her visit to China in June 2015. China's interests in Myanmar are strategic and long-term, so Beijing sought to establish good relations with the country's potential leader. According to the speaker, the new government of Myanmar will pursue a balanced multi-vector foreign policy, put national interests at the forefront, and not sacrifice them in the interests of the United States or China.

E. A. Fomicheva (IB RAS) presented the report "The new geopolitical situation in the Asia-Pacific region and the place of US-Thailand relations in it". She stressed that U.S.-Thai relations have always been consistent with the changing international environment. With the stability of military allied relations, new nuances were emphasized: the military alliance with the United States in the war against the national liberation movement in Indochina in 1950-1970; the defeat of the United States in Vietnam and Thailand's transition to a more balanced foreign policy while maintaining allied obligations with the United States; the formation and development of Thai-Chinese relations and the strengthening of Chinese influence. Today, the political landscape in the Asia-Pacific region is determined primarily by the rivalry between the United States and China in the political, military and economic spheres. The strengthening of China's position in the region is of concern to the United States, which has decided on a strategic "turn" towards the Asia-Pacific region. The goal of the United States is economic dominance in the Asia-Pacific region, while shifting the US forward-based military base to the region. In light of these changes, Washington considers Thailand an important military ally in Southeast Asia. American politicians are concerned about Thailand's excessive rapprochement with China. The basis of Thailand's modern foreign policy is the balance between the United States and China. Relations between Thailand and the United States have experienced a certain cooling due to the US condemnation of the military coup in the country, which is regarded in Bangkok as interference in the internal affairs of the country. At the end of 2015, E. A. Fomicheva noted, the United States is taking measures to improve bilateral relations.

The topic of the report by N. N. Bektimirova (MSU ISAA) is "Cambodian-American relations: Trends and prospects". She noted that during the presidency of Barack Obama, there was an intensification of US-Cambodian relations, which was reflected in the establishment of direct contacts between top-level leaders of the two countries, in stable military and economic cooperation. At the same time, Washington's close monitoring of the democratization process in Cambodia, its use of economic pressure tactics in the event of a deterioration in the human rights situation, and its support for the opposition National Salvation Party of Cambodia add a certain element of instability to bilateral relations. Although the Cambodian government has become less sensitive to a reduction in US economic aid, as it is offset by China, the country's ruling elites are trying to adhere to the traditional policy of balancing the US and China.

In his speech "Vietnamese youth; studying in the USA", A. A. Sokolov (Institute of Higher Education of the Russian Academy of Sciences) presented data on the number of Vietnamese students studying abroad, including in the USA (as of 2014). At present, the population of Vietnam is more than 90 million people, with 45% of the total population of the country. - persons under 25 years of age. Therefore, the problem of obtaining education, especially higher education, is very acute. The mass departure of Vietnamese youth to study abroad began about 15 years ago. According to the Ministry of Education and Training of Vietnam, 110 thousand Vietnamese people studied abroad in 2014: in Australia - 27,750, Japan-26,439, USA-16,579, China-more than 13 thousand, Singapore-more than 10 thousand, France-about 7 thousand, Taiwan-more than 6 thousand, in the UK, more than 5 thousand, in Russia, more than 4 thousand. At the same time, only about 10% of Vietnamese study abroad at the expense of the state.

The number of Vietnamese students studying in the United States is constantly growing. Up to 60% of students receive scholarships or other form of assistance from various organizations of the Vietnamese diaspora, which numbers more than 1 million people in the United States. Vietnamese give preference to

such specialties as management, finance, engineering, mathematics, etc. According to the Vietnamese press, up to 60% of Vietnamese students try to stay in the United States and do not return to their homeland. In the current situation of the crisis of higher education in Vietnam, to prevent brain drain, the authorities are developing a program - opening branches of some foreign universities directly in the country.

M. S. Zelenkova's report "Educational programs as a mechanism of the US soft Power policy in Vietnam "continued the topic. She noted that, projecting its influence on Southeast Asia, the United States uses all political and economic means and mechanisms, among which "soft power" occupies the main place. Educational programs are traditionally the most effective and long-term. These include educational exchanges and targeted training for certain professional groups. Among the Southeast Asian countries, according to M. S. Zelenkova, the most active American educational programs are implemented in Vietnam. Vietnam ranks ninth in the world in terms of the number of undergraduates, interns, and postgraduates studying in the United States. In the 2014/15 academic year, the number of Vietnamese participants in American educational programs in the United States reached 18,722 people. US educational programs are also aimed at training representatives of foreign armed forces. Thus, under the program of international military education and combat training, Vietnam received US assistance in the amount of 196 thousand dollars in 2009. - in 2013 and about 1.5 ml in 2015.

In her report "US Policy in the Philippines at the present Stage: Pros and Cons", D. S. Panarina (Institute of Internal Affairs of the Russian Academy of Sciences) gave a brief overview of the US policy during the Obama administration in the Philippines. She identified the main goals that the United States sets for itself in partnership and allied relations with the Philippines: military-strategic, political-diplomatic, economic, educational and cultural. Data on all areas of the bilateral dialogue were presented, achievements and unresolved problems related to the two countries in the region were shown.

In order to create an approximate image of the United States in the eyes of Filipinos (in comparison, in particular, with China) and find out how positively or negatively Filipinos perceive the American presence on their land, how they assess the impact of American policy in the region in general and in the Philippines in particular, the speaker provided statistics for the last three years. It was concluded that the Philippines is highly dependent on the United States, most Filipinos welcome the presence of the United States in their country, and the resolution of conflicts in the region that affect the common interests of the United States and the Philippines will continue to be slow, with varying success, as in all previous years.

S. E. Pale (IB RAS) in her presentation "Chinese expansion in Micronesia: Will the United States survive" supported the opinion of previous speakers that China has recently been actively increasing its presence in the Pacific Ocean, affecting the spheres of influence not only of its closest neighbors-Japan, South Korea and Australia, but also of the world's " Pacific power"- USA.

The speaker touched on the little-studied topic of strengthening the Chinese presence in another strategically important region of the Pacific Ocean for the United States - Micronesia. Despite the fact that since 2013 Beijing declares: "There is enough space in the Pacific Ocean to accommodate China and the United States" - the active offensive of Chinese capital on the key US possessions in Micronesia began in the mid-2000s and increased every year.

S.e. Pale noted that the US military presence in Micronesia has turned this region into their most important outpost in the Pacific. The US dollar, being the official currency in many parts of Micronesia, as well as large dollar subsidies, allow us to maintain a strong position here. However, after the 2008 crisis, annual funding for Micronesian territories was cut by Washington by almost a third. Chinese capital began to fill the vacant niches.

The speaker introduced the audience to the Micronesian states of Palau and Guam and showed what influence the United States and China have on their development. S.E. Pale concluded that China and the United States will continue to compete in the Asia-Pacific region. Many experts, according to her, do not rule out the inevitability of the US-Chinese "cold war".

In his closing speech, Dmitry Mosyakov expressed gratitude to the conference participants and pointed out the need for further scientific cooperation.

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