At the turn of the millennium, Vietnam's foreign policy underwent significant changes caused by the development of economic and political processes in the world and, in particular, in Southeast Asia. The new approaches are a response to China's growing strength and tough stance on the ownership of islands in the South China Sea, on the one hand, and Russia's declining role, on the other. These trends have made it necessary to find a new ally capable of influencing the balance of global M & A around Vietnam.

Keywords: Vietnam, ASEAN + 8, Southeast Asia, international relations, South China Sea, Clinton, Bush, Obama.

In the second half of the 1990s, the political leadership and academic circles of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam (SRV) identified the need to develop new guidelines in foreign policy that took into account the dynamically changing world. A consensus approach to this issue was expressed by an influential and authoritative scientist, Professor of the Institute of Economics of the Academy of Social Sciences of Vietnam Tran Jin Thien. In his speech in December 2005 at a seminar on the development of relations between the ASEAN countries and China, he said:: "Over the past few decades, the world has witnessed major developments on the global chessboard. They were clearly expressed in the rise of the power and influence of some regions and major powers against the background of the retreat to the background of others, who previously occupied the leading positions. Although these trends are not yet firmly established, the overall picture is already clear. So far, there are no clear signs of the return of the Russian Federation to the level of a superpower. It cannot overcome the state of"political and social instability". A huge country with huge natural resources is still experiencing "puzzling problems" as a result of the falling birth rate, the lack of qualified labor, and failures in the foreign policy arena due to the "Orange revolutions" in Eastern Europe." Thus, Chan Jin Thien stated, it can be assumed that Russia will retain a relatively low status in international affairs in the medium term [China's Developments..., 2006, p. 123].

Regarding the European Union, the scientist expressed the following point of view: with the expansion of the number of participants, the growth of its collective power in the visible future is doubtful. Recent years have shown that Europeans are more divided than united, and the EU's mechanisms are inflexible and weak, as the failure of the European Constitution has clearly proved.

Describing Japan, Jang Jin-thien noted that it has been in a state of stagnation in recent decades. While remaining a regional superpower, Japan has consistently lost ground to China and is unlikely to catch up.-

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current positions. This important point should be clearly understood by the member States of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which are heavily dependent on Japanese technology and investment.

Thus, while the three listed "centers of power" slide down on an inclined plane, the other three-the United States, China and India, on the contrary, rise up.

The United States will continue to top the list of world powers for the foreseeable future, remain the flagship of global economic development, and maintain its primacy in international politics. American power will be reflected in all areas: monetary and financial, military, world trade, the movement of technology and capital.

China and India are strongly expanding their existing capacities, and this trend will be strengthened by having a solid resource for further comprehensive progress. These giant economies will have a growing influence on the" global weather " and the rules of the game in international relations. China is increasingly attracting the real sector of the world economy, catching up with the United States. India follows the same path. Based on a growing domestic market and strong economic growth, China and India are expanding and deepening their economic ties with North America, Japan, Western Europe, and East Asia. Having a solid production base and a developed financial system, they have a growing influence on the formation of a new structure of the international division of labor, turning into the most important factor affecting global commodity flows of both raw materials and food, and high-tech finished products.

Turning to the analysis of the role and place of the ASEAN countries, Chang Jin-thien noted that, despite the relatively rapid recovery from the 1997-1998 monetary and financial crisis, the prospects for further economic development of the ASEAN ten and its integration into the processes of globalization are not so clear. In his opinion, in the post-crisis period, it failed to make the necessary efforts for internal integration and develop a common position facing the outside world. "China's shadow hangs over the ASEAN zone in terms of resolving sub-regional conflicts and establishing economic cooperation" [China's Development..., 2005, p. 125].

In general, the Vietnamese capital believed that the increased involvement of influential global players in Southeast Asian affairs was productive in terms of maintaining the balance of power and expanding choice for countries in the region, including Vietnam. At the same time, Hanoi recognized that the development of the situation under such a scenario could lead to increased competition between leading non-regional powers and turn the ASEAN area into a new "battleground" for supremacy. At the same time, the current geopolitical situation has more advantages than disadvantages.

DYNAMICS OF RELATIONS BETWEEN VIETNAM AND THE UNITED STATES

Guided by a pragmatic approach determined by national interests, Vietnam has identified the comprehensive development of relations with the United States as a priority area of its foreign policy and diplomacy. In mid-July 2010, Hanoi celebrated the 15th anniversary of the normalization of political relations with Washington. In a short period of time, the parties have done solid work to create solid foundations for bilateral dialogue and cooperation. To a large extent, this was facilitated by mutual visits and negotiations between the top leaders of Vietnam and the United States. The first official visit to Hanoi was made by Bill Clinton in November 2000, and exactly six years later by George W. Bush. In June 2007, Vietnam's President Nguyen Minh Thiet visited Washington, followed by Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung a year later.

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The signing of a trade agreement with the United States in July 2000 marked the end of the process of normalization of bilateral relations, which marked the most important stage in Vietnam's integration into world economic relations. The agreement covered a wide range of issues, including trade in goods and services, intellectual property rights, business promotion measures, conflict resolution procedures, and arbitration.

According to Vietnamese experts, the agreement, as well as the approval by the US Congress in early 2007 of the law on "permanent normal trade relations", provided Vietnam with a number of significant advantages. First, they contributed to a significant expansion of the export market. In 2001-2008, the volume of bilateral trade increased tenfold: from 1.5 billion rubles. - up to $ 15 billion, mainly due to the increased export of Vietnamese goods abroad. Secondly, gaining the status of a full-fledged business partner has helped to strengthen the confidence of American and other foreign investors in Vietnam. In 2008 alone, U.S. private companies invested $ 2.8 billion in the Vietnamese economy. Third, there are additional opportunities for the transfer of modern technologies to Vietnam, as exemplified by the opening of an enterprise of the American high-tech corporation Intel. Previously, the Vietnamese economy lagged significantly behind in this area, being, in fact, the object of" draining " used technologies. Fourth, a new page in bilateral trade and economic relations stimulated an increase in the level of training of local qualified specialists who now possess modern management methods based on information and communication technologies. Fifth, the trade agreement was agreed and signed in accordance with the rules of the World Trade Organization (WTO), which created favorable conditions for the subsequent entry of Vietnam into this international organization [Maslov and Urlyapov, 2009, pp. 49-50].

In 2007 Vietnam has signed a Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA)1 with the United States, paving the way for a bilateral free trade agreement. In accordance with US law, WTO membership and signing TIFA are mandatory conditions for full liberalization of US trade and economic relations with a particular foreign country.

In mid-2008, during Nguyen Tan Dung's visit to Washington, negotiations on a bilateral investment agreement were initiated. Then-US President George W. Bush confirmed that his administration would pay close attention to Vietnam's application for preferential status under the US General System of Preferences (GSP), as well as to the recognition of the market nature of its economy.

The request for GSP status remained the subject of negotiations between Hoang Chung Hai, Deputy Prime Minister of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam, and US Secretary of State Kim Jong Un. At the same time, in November 2008, the Vietnamese side made it clear that in overcoming the global crisis that had significantly affected the Vietnamese economy, the leadership of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam counted on the advantages arising from partnership relations with the United States [Murasheva, 2009, p. 317].

It should be noted that the crisis caused a serious drop in Vietnamese exports, which accounted for up to 40% of the country's GDP. Moreover, the US accounted for about 20-23% of the export structure. Although the government managed to avoid serious consequences due to the preventive measures taken, the crisis affected the flow of domestic and foreign investment, reducing the personal consumption of a certain part of Vietnamese citizens.

1 Between 2002 and 2007, the United States signed Preliminary Trade and Investment Framework Agreements (TIFA) with all ASEAN countries (with the exception of Laos and Myanmar).

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A special role in the relations between Vietnam and the United States was played by a large colony of foreign Vietnamese (Viet Kieu), which is significant in its size and place in the American economy2, in different periods and for various reasons settled overseas. According to the 2006 census, there were over 1.6 million Vietnamese Americans living in the United States. The Viet Kieu are the second largest group of Southeast Asians after the Filipinos. Its contribution to the US economy was at least $ 20 billion. [Business Association..., 14.04.2010].

It is no secret that initially Hanoi treated emigrants very cautiously, especially those who found themselves on American soil after the liberation of South Vietnam in the spring of 1975. For the American Viet Kieu, ample opportunities were opened for money transfers to relatives, capital investments, land acquisition and other real estate. By 2008, "Vietnamese" businesses in the United States had invested about $ 200 million in Vietnam's economy.

After visiting the United States in mid-2007, President Nguyen Minh Thiet met in Los Angeles with representatives of the large Vietnamese community in California. At the meeting, he said that during the talks with President Bush, the situation of Vietnamese people in the United States was discussed in detail, and the American leader highly appreciated their contribution to the country's economy. The President of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam called on the local Viet Kieu to actively participate in the process of building a powerful Vietnamese state. He also announced the abolition of the visa regime for foreign Vietnamese [President Triet..., 25.06.2007].

In April 2010, the representative of the Prime Minister of Vietnam, who oversees relations with Viet Kieu, took part in the opening of the American branch of the World Business Association of Foreign Vietnamese 3. It was supposed to become the parent organization of Vietnamese-Americans who make a significant contribution to the economic development of Vietnam [Business Association..., 14.04.2010].

The party-state leadership of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam took into account that the approaches of American administrations to trade and economic relations were based not only on commercial, but also on political motives. Conditions were created for US companies that naturally sought to establish themselves in a potentially large market, and if necessary, use Vietnam as an alternative base for implementing the "China plus One" strategy. We are talking about the transfer of production capacity in the future from China, with its growing cost of labor and energy resources. At the same time, Washington clearly sought to simultaneously force market reforms in the economy and liberalize the political system of Vietnam [Anh Tran...., 19.09.2008].

STRENGTHENING RELATIONS IN THE POLITICAL AND DEFENSE SPHERES

Since 2005, real steps have been taken to establish cooperation in the military-political sphere within the framework of the Pentagon-led International Military Education Training program. It provided for the exchange of students of military educational institutions for advanced language training, the participation of military personnel of the Vietnamese People's Army (VNA) in joint peacekeeping operations, providing humanitarian assistance in natural disasters, conducting rescue operations, and ensuring the security of sea and land borders. In mid-2008, Vietnam's Prime Minister, Nguyen Tan Dung, announced Vietnam's readiness to participate in the multilateral program provided for by the US Global Initiative for Peacekeeping Operations.

2 Viet kieu.

3 Business Association of Overseas Vietnamese.

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Since 2003, military ships of the US Navy's Pacific Fleet have been visiting Vietnamese ports. By 2007, five U.S. warships had visited Vietnam, including as part of the multilateral Cooperation Afloat Readiness and Training (CARAT) project. In 2007, the US 7th Fleet auxiliary vessel Peleliu visited Da Nang to conduct a number of medical and engineering operations. In June of the following year, in the Vietnamese port of Ngachang, an American floating hospital Mercy was on a long mission, whose staff provided medical care to more than 11 thousand people. Vietnamese citizens. In April 2009, high-ranking representatives of the Ministry of Defense of Vietnam visited the USS John C. Stennis, which was in international waters off the coast of South Vietnam [US-Vietnam Relations, October 2009].

In August 2010, among the events dedicated to the 15th anniversary of the normalization of bilateral relations, the first meeting of the direct dialogue between the military departments of Vietnam and the United States at the level of deputy Defense Ministers was held in Hanoi. During the exchange of views, issues of strengthening cooperation in the military-civilian sphere were discussed: the search for US servicemen who went missing during the Indochina War, the exchange of students from military educational institutions of the two countries. According to the Deputy Minister of Defense of Vietnam, General Nguyen Chi Vinh, during the dialogue, the parties did not discuss in detail the problem of the East (South China) Sea. However, they agreed that this, as well as other regional security issues, should be resolved "in accordance with international law, in a constructive, friendly and peaceful spirit" [Vietnam-US..., 17.08.2010].

Significant progress in establishing military cooperation did not mean that Vietnam intended to move to a unilateral orientation towards the United States. Hanoi viewed building ties with Washington in the broad context of multi-vector military diplomacy. Back in the late 1990s of the last century, a program of cooperation with Australia was launched, where more than 150 VNA officers were trained. Vietnam has also taken steps to establish military cooperation with France, the former colonial mother country [Thayer, 23.08.2010].

Vietnam actively supported the initiative to establish the ASEAN + 8 mechanism for military-political and defense cooperation, which includes the "top ten" members of the Association and eight non-regional partners.4 According to the Minister of Defense of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam Fung Quang Thang, the creation of such a mechanism would be a response to existing traditional and non-traditional threats and challenges. At the same time, it should not have been considered a step towards putting together a certain military alliance directed against a hypothetical enemy [Vn Suggests..., 11.05.2010].

Along with the overall progressive development of bilateral relations, quite complex problems have also emerged. They were grouped in the areas of the implementation of human rights, the protection of religious freedoms and democratic processes. Ignoring the differences in political systems, Washington administrations have constantly sought to impose their own political and ideological values that are not typical of Vietnamese society. This line has been consistently pursued by the United States since the establishment of official relations in mid-1995. Then-US President Bill Clinton stated that "normalizing relations and expanding contacts between Americans and Vietnamese will contribute to the celebration of the cause of freedom in Vietnam in the same way as in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union" [Ta Minh Tuan, April, 2010].

This principle continued to dominate Washington's approach to Vietnam, provoking a negative reaction from its politicians. The U.S. House of Representatives has consistently adopted resolutions on the human rights situation in many parts of the world.

4 Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand, the Republic of Korea, Russia, and the United States.

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Vietnam, the criticism expressed in the annual reports of the US State Department-all this only gave rise to doubts in Hanoi about the long-term intentions of American partners, and raised serious concerns about the US course towards a "peaceful evolution" of the social and political system of Vietnam.

The consequences of the Indochina War, one of the bloodiest in the history of the twentieth century, continued to weigh heavily on Vietnamese-American relations. In Vietnam, they realized that the experience was still a psychological problem that had once divided American society. At one time, the US Congress very often heard the voices of influential groups that failed to completely overcome the "battlefield mentality" and sharply opposed the normalization of relations with Vietnam.

As far as Vietnamese society is concerned, it has obviously taken a generation to partially heal the wounds inflicted by the war, and it will take a century to completely eliminate its worst consequences. Hundreds of thousands of separated families and some 300,000 missing persons remained in the country. Many Vietnamese citizens (at least 1 million people) continued to suffer from the effects of defoliants and chemical weapons used by the US Army. About 50 thousand children born after the end of the war suffer from congenital pathological defects. Millions of anti-personnel mines and other munitions left in the ground after the end of the war caused the death or serious injury of more than 100 thousand Vietnamese.

Analyzing the prospects for further development of bilateral relations, Hanoi did not rule out the possibility of reducing the importance of Vietnam in the list of priorities of US Asian policy. Some Vietnamese international experts expressed the opinion that, for obvious reasons, China, Japan, and the difficult situation on the Korean Peninsula will continue to occupy a dominant place in Washington's foreign policy agenda in Pacific Asia. In South-East Asia, the United States ' priority is likely to eventually be taken by Indonesia , the region's largest state. They believed that Vietnam would be of interest to the United States in responding to China's growing role in international affairs and Beijing's "peace offensive" in Southeast Asia. Given these factors, they anticipated that Washington would closely monitor Vietnam's performance as the ASEAN Chair in 2010.

In this position, Vietnamese diplomacy was ready to step up dialogue with the United States on signing a protocol to the Agreement on the Establishment of a nuclear-weapon-free zone in Southeast Asia.5 At the Nuclear Security Summit in Washington in April 2010. Nguyen Tan Dung said that Vietnam supports the coordinated actions of the international community on disarmament and non-proliferation of nuclear weapons.

Although there is no direct threat of the use of weapons of mass destruction in Southeast Asia, the region is attracting close attention from Washington for a variety of military and political reasons. First, important international arteries run through the waters of the ASEAN countries, through which it is theoretically possible to carry out illegal transportation of nuclear materials, equipment and technologies. Secondly, there is a hypothetical threat that they may end up in the hands of international terrorist groups or organizations. Third, a number of ASEAN member States, including Vietnam, have started developing national nuclear energy development programs. Hanoi and its ASEAN partners sought to convince the United States of the full transparency of these programs and their compliance with the IAEA standards6 [Vietnam Sings..., 30.03.2010].

5 SEANWFZ.

6 In March 2010 Vietnam and the United States signed an agreement on cooperation in nuclear energy. US Ambassador to Hanoi Michael Michalak described it as an important moment in the development of bilateral relations, as a major step towards achieving the goals set by the non-proliferation process.

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The Vietnamese side looked forward to continuing the bilateral dialogue with the United States, which began with two rounds of meetings in Hanoi (2008) and Washington (2009), on political and military-strategic issues that required further convergence of positions with the aim of a positive breakthrough. These included, for example, mutual assessment of the military-strategic situation in the Western Pacific, prospects for bilateral military and military-technical cooperation, and the issue of human rights. Hanoi believed that a significant convergence of positions could occur if the current White House administration acted without undue regard for the opposition and lobbyists in the highest US legislative bodies.

Expressing his opinion on the importance of the role of the United States, Ta Minh Tuan, Deputy Director of the Center for Foreign Policy and Regional Studies of the Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam, noted that, given the scale of the US military-political and economic positions in the Asia-Pacific region (APR), Vietnam would welcome the continuation of the American presence in the waters of Southeast Asia. In his opinion, the competition is between China, Japan and India (with possible involvement of South Korea and Indonesia). The struggle for regional leadership can cause a split and division between the countries of this part of Asia. In these circumstances, the United States could play the role of a constructive counterweight to the development of such a trend. In addition, a number of problems faced by Vietnam and other countries in the Asia-Pacific region cannot be solved without cooperation with the United States [Ta Minh Tuan, April 2010].

VIETNAM, SOUTHEAST ASIA AND THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION

At the moment, fears that the United States has lost or is losing interest in Southeast Asian affairs are not justified. On the contrary, the administration of the 44th President of the United States has taken a number of new initiatives in the region, differing in consistency in implementation from the rhetoric and zigzags of the foreign policy course of the former Washington "team" headed by George W. Bush.

During the meeting of the Asean Regional Security Forum (ARF) held in Hanoi in July 2010, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton made a statement that the task of resolving the problems of the East (South China) Sea is of particular importance from the point of view of Washington's national strategy. The statement by the head of the US diplomatic department caused a sharp negative reaction from China, which accused the US of interfering in the internal affairs of the region. Considering the area of this sea a zone of its special interests, comparable to Taiwan, Tibet and Xinjiang, Beijing immediately conducted naval maneuvers in the South China Sea [McCoy, 28.09.2010].

In response, the United States organized a smaller-scale but highly symbolic exercise involving high-ranking Vietnamese military representatives on board the US aircraft carrier George Washington in the special economic zone of Vietnam near the Hoang Sa 7 Islands, illegally occupied by the PRC. Although the exercises were of a command-and-staff nature and did not involve direct combat training, they served as a clear sign that the United States would not scale back its military presence in the South China Sea and had a specific partner ready to cooperate here. The second ASEAN-US summit held at the end of September 2010 was a new example of this. Held in New York under the chairmanship of the President of the Russian Federation-

7 Paracel Islands.

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Vietnam and the United States-Nguyen Minh Thiet and Barack Obama's meeting ended with the signing of an important joint statement. In one of its points, the participants confirmed the need to ensure regional peace and stability, safety of navigation and unhindered trade in accordance with the principles of international law reflected in the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, 8 and their determination to resolve disputes by peaceful means [Joint Statement..., 24.09.2010].

Commenting on the results of the New York summit, Philippine President Benigno Aquino, who was responsible for organizing it, said that the meeting was "a testament to America's commitment to be an active partner of ASEAN." Touching upon the issue of the South China Sea, the Philippine leader stressed that " the United States is our most reliable partner in ensuring regional security." Clearly hinting at China's ambitions, he noted that the growing territorial claims in the waters of this sea are of serious concern. Aquino, recalling the commitment of the ASEAN Ten countries to the Declaration on the Code of Conduct of the Parties in the South China Sea of 1992, put forward the idea of developing an additional document in which the interested States would legally confirm their readiness to resolve disputed issues through diplomatic means. According to him, this initiative coincides with the point of view of US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, voiced in mid-2010 in Hanoi [Bower, 27.09.2010].

At the end of the first decade of this century, relations between Vietnam and the United States reached the level of mature partnership. This was evidenced by the fact that the meetings of the leaders of both countries have acquired a regular constructive character. The mechanism of consultations between the diplomatic departments of the two countries is fully operational. Hanoi and Washington have established mutually beneficial trade and economic ties with the prospect of reaching an agreement on the full liberalization of mutual trade, investment and services. With the assistance of the US government and American private organizations, Vietnamese students, interns and postgraduates (about 10 thousand people) are trained overseas. Cooperation between the military departments of the two countries is being established.

At the same time, certain difficulties remain in bilateral relations in the area of respect for human rights and the protection of religious freedoms. In their approach to these problems, the leadership of Vietnam proceeds from the real fact that there are fundamental differences in the political systems of Vietnam and the United States, and advocates that the American partners respect the historical experience, traditions and culture of the Vietnamese people.

Hanoi is satisfied with the understanding shown by the Obama administration in connection with the growing concern of Vietnam and other ASEAN countries regarding the development of the situation in the South China Sea region. By openly intervening in the settlement of this problem, the United States has helped ASEAN gain a stronger position in the difficult dialogue with China.

In addition, the New York summit showed that the United States and especially ASEAN members did not intend to resort to bellicose rhetoric against Beijing. Taking into account China's position at the summit, it was decided not to adopt a special statement on this issue. Otherwise, such a move could be seen as a transition to an open struggle for regional supremacy in this important part of Asia, as a well-known return to the cold war era in the region. Vietnam and most of its ASEAN partners welcome increased American involvement in Southeast Asian affairs, but not for the sake of isolating China. For them, it is preferable to create a" triangle " of strategic polylogue consisting of the United States, China and ASEAN in order to develop a mutually acceptable modus vivendi.

8 UNCLOS.

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list of literature

Maslov G. M., Urlyapov V. F. Vietnam in the system of modern international relations in the Asia-Pacific region, Moscow, 2009.
Murasheva G. F. Vietnam in the context of the Global Financial and Economic crisis (some aspects of domestic and foreign policy in 2008-2009). Yugo-Vostochnaya Aziya: aktual'nye problemy razvitiya [South-East Asia: Actual Problems of Development]. Issue XIII. South-East Asia 2008-2009, Moscow, 2009.

Anh Tran. Vietnam Weaves between US and China. http://www.atimes.com/atimes/ Southeast Asia.

Bower, Ernie. 2nd US ASEAN Leaders ' Meeting: Elevating the Partnership to a Strategic Level. http://cogita-sia.com/2010/09/27/2nd-us-asean-leaders%e2%80%99-meeting-ele vating.

Business Association of Overseas Vietnamese (BAOOV) Has Set up its Branch in the USA. http:// en.vietnamembassy-usa.org/news/story.

China's Development and Prospect of ASEAN-China Relations. Hanoi, 2006.

Joint Statement of the 2nd US-ASEAN Leaders Meeting. New York, http://cogitasia.com/2010/09/24/white-house-joint-statrment-of-2nd-us-asean-lea ders.

McCoy, Clinton. US Stirs South China Sea Waters. http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast Asia/LI28Ae01.html.

President Triet, Bush Hail "New Era" in VN-US Ties, http://vietnamnews.vnagency.com.vn/showarticle.php.

Ta Minn Tuan. The Future of Vietnam-US Relations, http://www.brookings.educ/opinions/2010/04.

Thayer, Carlyle. Vietnam's Defensive Diplomacy, http://cogitasia.com/2010/08/23.

US-Vietnam Relations, http://vietnam.usembassy.gov/relations.html.

Vietnam-US Hold Defense Policy Dialogue, http:// www.mofa.gov.vn/en.

Vietnam Sings Energy Agreement with US. http://www.voanews.com/English/news/asia.

VN Suggests ASEAN + 8 Defense Cooperation Mechanism. http://en.vietnamplus.vn/Home/VN-suggests-ASEANNS-defence-cooperation-m echanism.

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