Libmonster ID: VN-1290


Moscow: Moscow Public Scientific Foundation. 2001. 272 p.

(Scientific reports, No. 127)

(c) 2002 L. Z. ZEVIN, N. A. USHAKOVA

At the turn of the two millennia, the problem of globalization has become one of the most actively discussed (and controversial) topics of economic theory and practice. Conventionally, we can distinguish two periods in the development of modern approaches to this problem. Before the crises of the mid-1990s, South-East Asia, Russia, and some Latin American countries were dominated by uncompromising adherents of the universality of the theory of globalization, its applicability to all groups of countries, all spheres of the world economy, and its beneficial impact on them. However, the severe consequences of these crises, the speed of their spread

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They strengthened the position of critics of globalization, whose fears were confirmed in a series of subsequent events: the emergence of turmoil in the Turkish economy, the catastrophe of the open economy model in Argentina, and the deterioration of the world economic situation at the beginning of the new century.

The most difficult task today, in our opinion, is to find solutions to such problems as the nature of the relationship between the general (universality of global processes) and the particular (specifics of the economic structure, strategy and development policy of individual large countries outside the so-called industrial world, the reaction of economic groups of medium and underdeveloped countries to the challenges of globalization); finding out long-term development impulses from the outside by opening up medium-and underdeveloped economies to the world economy, while simultaneously increasing resilience to shocks coming from there, including through a higher degree of self-sufficiency and the use of state regulation to prioritize resources for the formation of a viable national economic system that is competitive by world standards.

Therefore, we should welcome the appearance of a new work by A. I. Salitsky, where he uses the example of China to find answers to the above and many other questions. According to the author's own definition, the main subject of his research is "the correlation and mutual influence of external and internal factors in the economic development of China in the last 20 years and their projection on the current situation in Asia" (p. 19). Among the main tasks, the author sees identifying the specifics of the interaction of internal and external factors in China, determining economic parameters, as well as socio-economic, political and ideological components of its foreign economic policy. It is obvious that any country's experience of adapting to global processes is interesting, but this interest increases many times over in China for many reasons.

First, its economic system involves (taking into account Taiwan, which is closely connected with the mainland and the Chinese diaspora, which makes large investments in the PRC economy) almost 1.5 billion rubles. human.

Secondly (and this idea is consistently carried out by the author throughout the work), "due to the lack of objective opportunities for integration into the world economy, the economy of the PRC acquires the features of an independent subsystem (system) in the international division of labor" (p.218). This systematic economy became even more complete after the restoration of Chinese sovereignty over Hong Kong in 1997. Modern China is neither a developing country, nor a developed country, nor a "transition" country, nor a newly industrialized country, although its economy has some of the characteristics of each of these groups of countries. The existence of such a large and integral entity, which does not belong to any of the known categories, serves, in the author's opinion, as an additional argument in favor of classifying China as a separate system (ibid.).

Third, the country's economic growth rate over the past two decades and its scale are such that China is not only adapting to the challenges of globalization, but also exerts an increasingly strong influence on the emerging "new architecture" of the world economy and international economic relations. "The PRC is increasingly becoming an active actor in the global economy, exerting significant direct and indirect influence on the latter" (pp. 55-56). According to the author, the influence of the PRC as a rapidly growing subject of globalization is manifested, in particular, in the fact that "the recent crisis in Pacific Asia increases state intervention and individualism of most governments in their approaches to the economy and foreign economic policy" (p.215).

Fourth, the reformers of the Chinese economy preferred gradualism. Analyzing the development of the Chinese economy over the past two decades, A. Salitsky emphasizes the role that a gradual, step-by-step approach to market transformation has played in shaping the current high competitiveness of the Chinese economy. "China's success is due to the fact that at first it created a commodity economy, the main institution of which is ultimately a national enterprise capable of both increasing output and improving its quality... Only after a long time - after finding ways to balance between demand, prices and supply, the interests of the enterprise, the state and society - in China they started talking about the market economy and slowly started working on it.

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its institutionalization " (p. 117). At the same time, the relationship between on-farm transformations and partial liberalization of the sphere of foreign economic activity was far from simple. The beginning of reforms in the PRC coincided with the strengthening of centralization in industry, and "the introduction of self-financing in industry, which continues to this day, started five years after the launch of the program for creating special economic zones and legislative registration of joint entrepreneurship with foreign investors in 1979" (p. 9).

Fifth, in the early 1990s, the strengthening of trends towards the recentralization of foreign trade and a sharp tightening of foreign economic regulation in some areas often coincided with their weakening in others, while the liberalization of foreign economic activity in some areas often coincided with protectionist measures in others. According to the author, the "flexibility" of China's foreign economic policy "should not be contrasted with rigidity and control: it does not exclude the possibility of reducing the areas of openness in certain areas, including for political reasons" (p. 52).

Sixth, it is necessary to emphasize such an unusual phenomenon for other reformed economies as the growing share of rural areas (including rural industry and services) in the GDP of China , a huge country with the highest economic dynamics in the world over the past 20 years. In the development of the agricultural sector over the past two decades, China has been ahead of almost all Asian countries, and the level of direct involvement of the Chinese agricultural sector in the international division of labor based on the principles of industrial and trade integration with foreign capital is extremely low. The agricultural factor gives "a fundamental identity to the development of China's economy and its current position in the world economy," the author states (p.78).

Analysis of China's chosen WTO accession strategy and policy is of particular importance for understanding the nature of China's interaction with the outside world. We will discuss this issue in more detail, since it is only briefly touched upon in the reviewed work (in particular, on pages 145, 159-160, 217). China has been negotiating WTO accession for 15 years, carefully considering the state of its economy, its dynamics and possible structural changes in the medium and long term. Therefore, its entry into this organization (since December 2001) is accompanied by numerous obligations and conditions that reflect the specifics of the national economy. In general, according to many analysts, the balance of pro and contra WTO membership will develop for China with a plus sign in the near future. There are forecasts that the average annual growth rate of China's foreign trade in 2002-2006 will be 15%, and the volume of Chinese exports will exceed $ 1 trillion per year by the end of the period. According to N. Lardy, a specialist at the Brooklyn Institute (Washington), WTO membership of China and Taiwan will increase global production by 2% and exports by 3% (WIKI. No. 4. January 19, 2002. p. 5).

The impact of China's increased participation in global processes on the state of world production and international trade, expected in accordance with these forecasts, allows us to agree with the main conclusion of the author, which is consistent with the ideas contained in his other works, namely: the peculiar, huge-scale economic system of China, based on the principle of self-sufficiency, is not so much integrated how much the economy interacts with it in order to adapt to the challenges of globalization. "A significant difference between the PRC and many countries lies in its orientation towards internal (inter-Chinese) integration with a rather cautious, selective, and often simply negative approach to integration processes on a global and even regional scale," says A. I. Salitsky (p.218). Speaking about the illegality of the widespread use of the concept of "integration", the author also puts forward additional considerations related to the exceptionally high role of foreign policy in the world economic strategy of the PRC, and their close relationship. Accordingly, theoretical approaches, principles and concepts are consistent. "Integration is conceptually and meaningfully largely opposed to the Chinese idea of multipolarity in the modern world, which has been actualized over the past decade and a half... Therefore, it is more appropriate to use the word adaptation in relation to the relations between China's economy and the world economy " (p. 213).

Another fundamental feature of China's participation in global processes is that the growth rate of economic interaction with the outside world is actually lower

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the rate of intensification of interaction between different regions within the country, which makes the national economy less vulnerable to external shocks. In addition to practical expediency, this trend in the concept of A. I. Salitsky also receives a theoretical justification: "The strategy of self-sufficiency is in principle quite compatible with the policy of intensifying foreign economic relations, large scientific, technical and information acquisitions, and the goals of adaptation to the foreign market may be more important than the tasks of integration into it. The latter process is probably no longer very possible for large countries in the near future (emphasis added-L. Z., N. U.), including due to the depressive state of the world economy as a whole" (p.227). In this context, it is interesting to note the special feature of the impact of joint entrepreneurship on the economic development of the country. Despite the huge influx of foreign capital, there is still a tendency for further internal integration of "Greater China", including its mainland. "The rate of its endogenous economic recovery continues to outstrip the rate of its inclusion in the world economy" (p. 189).

Attention is drawn to the peculiar interpretation of the terms "globalization" and "integration" by Chinese scientists. Apparently, A. I. Salitsky generally agrees with their approach. China's policy is based on non-recognition of the universality of globalization and denies it as the main trend of our time. Moreover, globalization is obviously not such even for the Western world. The author notes that economic globalization in our time "is usually considered by Chinese international experts as something external to China, as well as as a phenomenon that contains both challenges (threats) and new opportunities for the economy. Due to the recent crises in Asia and Latin America, the PRC is increasingly emphasizing the task of protecting against adverse external influences and strengthening the country's monetary and financial system" (p. 62).

Western rhetoric about globalization already in the 1980s required China to develop appropriate theoretical and ideological tools to counteract destructive influence from outside, among which the idea of a multipolar world, developed by Chinese international experts in the mid-1980s, should be highlighted. It was also very fruitful in terms of developing concrete measures in the foreign economic sphere, in particular, broad geographical diversification of economic ties with foreign countries.

It seems that to some extent one can agree with the denial of the universality of economic globalization in its "Atlantic" interpretation. The concept of Chinese scientists and economists does not exclude the globalization of many aspects of human existence, including in the economic sphere. The essence of the Chinese concept of globalization is to determine who is the subject of this process-enterprises, sub-sectors and industries, etc., or the national economic system of countries as a whole. In other words, inclusion in global processes should not only meet the interests of direct economic entities, but also go in line with the socio-economic strategy and policy of a given country.

In this context, it is obvious that the goal should be understood not to integrate into the global economy, but to interact with it in order to improve the structure of the Chinese economy, increase its stability and efficiency, and use the external factor to reduce imbalances in the development of certain parts of the country. The author claims: "China's international course is less likely to be influenced by the intrinsic value of expanding ties with the outside world, integrating into a "civilized" community, etc. In essence, this is a defensive, conservative, protective policy that follows from objective domestic and international conditions, economic and cultural self-sufficiency " (p. 61). China seems to have managed to avoid the overextending of many developing countries to external markets at the expense of domestic ones by implementing the third plenum of the twelfth CPC Central Committee: "Expanding ties with the outside world implies even greater expansion of interconnections between different regions within the country" (p.150).

The results of China's development in the last quarter of the last century and in the first years of this century confirm the effectiveness of the strategy and policy of interaction with the outside world without switching to the integration trajectory of inclusion in the world economy until the necessary conditions are created. Apparently, a similar strategy and policy of inclusion in the world economy

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It can be used to some extent by such large countries as Brazil, India, Indonesia (after overcoming the crisis), and Russia (naturally, taking into account the specifics of the already established involvement of national economic systems in the international division of labor).

The situation of small and medium-sized countries is much more complicated, but there are also certain reserves for participating in the global economy not only as an object for applying external forces. Recently, the tendency to strengthen the functions of sub-regional and regional integration associations aimed at protecting the interests of their participants in the process of integration into the world economy and increasing openness to the outside world has been more clearly manifested. For example, the CEE and Baltic countries that are aspiring to join the EU expect to significantly mitigate the asymmetry of their integration into the world economy under its "roof".

If we go further along the path proposed by A. I. Salitsky, we can, in our opinion, formulate an extremely important position: we should abandon the simplified understanding of economic globalization as a process regulated solely by the criteria of the efficiency of the world economy. In fact, regulation and management will be carried out as a result of a complex interweaving of interests at the global, regional, sub-regional and national levels, the activities of various integration associations, international economic and financial organizations, and the pressure of various social movements (the latter is caused by the fact that one of the essential features of economic globalization is the growing impact of non-economic factors).

The author's desire to highlight not only the essence of China's economic strategy and policy (the synthesis of modernity and traditionalism, the ability of the leadership to reject the misconceptions of the previous period and critically master the experience of Asian NIS), which made it possible to transform the country from an "object" to a "subject" of globalization in a historically short time, but also the methods by which this great transformation has been accomplished.

Traditional principles of Confucianism were widely used to mobilize the population, and strategic goals were "dressed" in carefully thought-out, extremely simple and accessible ideologems for the majority of the population, including the peasantry. In foreign economic policy, the basic principles of self - reliance are considered quite compatible with the policy of increasing trade, attracting foreign investment and technology. This principled balanced line, which is drawn in the most important segment of the economic strategy, was formulated in the same clear and understandable theses that exclude ambiguous interpretation: "to feed exports with imports", "to strengthen self - reliance for greater discovery", "to strengthen self-reliance with discovery" (p.39).

Thus, according to A. I. Salitsky, the economic success of the People's Republic of China at home and abroad can be "attributed to its strategy and policy, the dominance of the national economic approach in theory and practice, as well as a critical attitude towards modern liberalism, especially in the sphere of economic relations with foreign countries, and the gradual nature of internal Chinese reforms". (p. 30).

For Russian analysts and economists, the model of development of the Chinese economy, the role of the external factor in it, and the possibility of certain segments of the economy reaching the post-industrial level without necessarily repeating the experience of Asian NIS with their excessive export orientation, dependence on foreign technologies and investments are of great interest, including practical ones. An analysis of the strategic line adopted by China to avoid large income gaps with the huge scale of the Chinese economy leads the author to the conclusion that in the future, as at present, the growth of foreign trade will lag behind the growth of the domestic market, from fluctuations in supply and demand, where the economy will receive stronger impulses than from changes in the world economy. In contrast to the Asian NIS of the first and second wave, the Chinese economy, the author believes, "can develop at a stable high rate for a long time, regardless of trends in the dynamics of foreign trade turnover" (p. 77). The idea that the PRC is "dominated by a focus on the domestic market, the creation of its own production with a relatively closed cycle within national borders" (p. 211), consistently runs through all the work (p. 211). 13, 76, 77, 93, 98, 211 etc.). The author's conclusions are consistent with the results of-

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tatami of the latest research by Chinese scientists. Thus, experts of the authoritative Center for Development Studies under the State Council of the People's Republic of China estimated the GDP growth rate in the current five-year period at 7.86% per year, while similar indicators for Chinese exports and imports for 2000-2005 were predicted by them at 6.56% and 7.19%, respectively (p.98).

Unfortunately, after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the poorly chosen model of transformation, the Russian economy suffered not only quantitative, but also qualitative losses: it was unable to carry out the process of reproduction mainly on its own basis due to the" washing out "of a number of" upper floors " of industry, technological backwardness, and a decrease in the intellectual potential and skills of the labor force. The result was a kind of "structural flux" - an unjustifiably high share of resource-based industries and their one-sided orientation to export. The expansion of Russia's foreign trade facilities without state intervention, aimed at gradually and economically justified changes in the structure of exports, investment priorities, and a certain redistribution of income between industries in order to increase the competitiveness of the economy as a whole, brings the economy closer to the "foreign trade trap", consolidating Russia's current status as one of the resource-producing regions of the world economy.

The features of regional development of the PRC noted by A. I. Salitsky are interesting: the decrease in the share of regions in GDP as they move from East to West, the correlation of accumulated foreign investment with exports at the regional level (Table 55.56), in the absence of a positive correlation between the inflow of foreign direct investment and the growth of the country's exports (Appendix, Table 25). When analyzing the regional problems of China and Russia, one should pay attention to their asymmetry: if the vector of decline in the level of regional development in China is oriented to the West, then in Russia it is deployed to the East. This circumstance will obviously play a significant role in shaping the division of labor between the two countries. Russia will probably have to define its strategy in economic relations with its huge neighbor in such a way that it ensures mutual benefit, sustainability and integration of the territories bordering and adjacent to China into the emerging national economic complex of the Russian Federation, while increasing trade volumes and improving the division of labor in the selected areas.

Without denying the need to activate unused reserves in mutual trade, the author nevertheless considers it more important for the PRC and its neighbors to improve economic cooperation in order to direct it "to mutual strengthening of self-sufficiency - in agriculture, science and technology, defense, etc., i.e., the actual expansion of the area of multipolarity of the modern world, which is objectively beneficial relatively weak countries" (p. 222). Both countries face the need to solve a number of similar problems: maintaining industrial and agricultural growth both to improve the standard of living of the population and to create prerequisites for the transition to a post-industrial development trajectory in the future; increasing attention to the growth of their domestic and regional Asian markets, in view of the unreality of a steady increase in exports of manufacturing products, integration of efforts that can make a serious contribution to the development of many border territories; creation of analogues of TNCs for the development of the regional market and its expansion, etc.

In A. I. Salitsky's book, which is very interesting and contains a number of new and promising ideas, there are also insufficiently substantiated conclusions and proposals, controversial provisions that are not supported by convincing arguments. When studying such a vast and dynamic problem as the state and prospects of China's interaction with the world economy, the appearance of individual inconsistencies and misunderstandings is inevitable. We consider them as a disadvantage and as a virtue of the work. The author does not seem to consider it possible to put dots over the " i " in the absence of sufficient material, but tries to get as close as possible to the answer in order to encourage the reader to continue the research of the problems formulated by him.

It seems to us that we can hardly agree with the author's unwitting appeal to other major countries to follow the example of China in its relations with the world economy (not integration, but adaptation) without due consideration of their real capabilities; with the spread of the Chinese position on the universality of global economic processes (according to the article).

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in fact, we should speak of a negative attitude to their Atlantic version); with attempts in some cases to draw conclusions based on the analysis of short-term periods (for example, the author's consideration of restrictions on the integration of large countries into the world economy due to the depression of the late XX-early XXI centuries); with an unconditional denial of the loss of under the pressure of globalization (although we agree that it is necessary to preserve and even strengthen the position of the state in response to global challenges). The comparison of Bolivia and Russia is also incorrect: in the first case, the structure of exports is shown, in the second-the share of exports in the production of individual goods that determine the export structure.

However, most of the comments indicate not so much the shortcomings of the reviewed work, but rather the presence of extremely complex problems that require further study. In general, experts and readers interested in the problems of the world economy and international economic relations have had the opportunity to get acquainted with an original study of a complex, multi-faceted and insufficiently developed topic of theoretical interest and practical significance for the current stage of transformation of the Russian economy, which is trying to intensify its participation in the world economy and respond to new challenges of globalization.


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