L. M. ISAEV, National Research University-Higher School of Economics
A. V. KOROTAEV, Doctor of Historical Sciences
Keywords: Egypt, Mohammed Morsi, army, gold and foreign exchange reserves, stock indexes
On July 3, 2013, Egyptian Defense Minister Abd al-Fattah al-Sisi announced in an address to citizens that President Mohamed Morsi had been removed from office and that the constitution adopted in December 2012 had been suspended. Thus, the short but unique period of the Muslim Brotherhood's rule has come to an end.
Already in the first months of his rule, Morsi was faced with the need to pursue an extremely unpopular policy to overcome the socio-economic crisis in the country. A signal of what political consequences this may lead to was the vote in the referendum in December 2012, when support for the constitution "pushed" by Islamists was not as obvious as it was in the March 2011 vote on the adoption of the interim constitutional declaration or in the parliamentary elections in December 2011-January 2012.1
It was obvious that it would not be possible to solve socio-economic issues by promoting Islam and populist slogans, which meant that the president would either have to retreat from the policy of Islamization, which would inevitably lead to a split among Islamists in Egypt, or all the frustrations associated with not improving (or even worsening) living conditions of the population and unresolved socio-economic problems, which would be strongly associated with the period of Islamist rule, which would sharply affect their support from citizens. However, Morsi was given a year to implement the Egyptian "economic miracle", which left no chance for the fifth Egyptian president to retain power.
WHO KNEW AND WHO GUESSED ABOUT THE CHANGE OF POWER
Nevertheless, if you observe the behavior of the main Egyptian stock exchange indices, you can identify extremely interesting patterns. Thus, two days before the start of the protests against President Morsi, on June 24, 2013, ... Read more