N. Y. ULCHENKO, PhD in Economics Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences
Keywords: Turkey, anti-government protests, interest lobby, foreign capital inflow (outflow)
What is the economic background of the anti-government protests in Turkey that took place in June 2013? The riots were provoked, according to Prime Minister R. T. Erdogan, by the so-called interest lobby. But the real problems of the country lie in the high degree of dependence of economic growth on external sources of financing and, as a result,on fluctuations in the global financial market.
The protests broke out against the backdrop of a decline in GDP growth: in 2012, they slightly exceeded 2%, and by the end of 2013 (presumably, at the time of writing, they have not yet been summed up) they will amount to only 3.6%, while in 2010 and 2011, the Turkish economy, which relatively painlessly survived the first wave of the global crisis, showed The economy is growing at a very high rate - about 9/6%.
Meanwhile, the risk of a slowdown for emerging (in other words, fast-growing) markets, including the Turkish economy, is high. According to some analysts, such economies are like cyclists who do not fall while they are moving. A recession is dangerous for these countries and threatens to turn out to be the threshold of a large-scale not only economic, but also socio-political crisis.
Were the June protests just an episode provoked by the "evil will" of forces hostile to the current regime, or can they be considered the first signs of Turkey's entry into a less prosperous period of economic development?
Predictably adhering to the version of provocations from ill-wishers, Prime Minister R. T. Erdogan pointed to the" percentage lobby "as an" influence group " interested in riots. The logical question is: is it possible to reduce the current situation to the actions of this "lobby", if it actually exists?
HOW THE "PERCENTAGE LOBBY" APPEARED...
The very concept of "interest lobby" implies the ... Read more