A. S. KHODUNOV, Post-Graduate Student, Russian State University for the Humanities
Keywords: demography, political stability, youth, revolution, declining birth rate
The most important event in the demographic sphere of humanity in recent centuries is the transition from traditionally high birth and death rates to low values of these indicators, which may be accompanied by a sharp acceleration in population growth.1 The accelerated growth of the population (and especially of young people) creates a strong tension in the socio-political situation. Against this background, many serious political upheavals have taken place, including revolutions and civil wars with a large number of victims. And this is despite the fact that the economic dynamics may be favorable.
Let's look at these relationships, comparing the situation in Iran and the countries of the "Arab Spring".
In Iran, the demographic transition began in the 1940s and accelerated particularly since the 1950s. Between the 1956 and 1986 censuses alone, Iran's population increased 2.6 times, from 18.95 million to 49.45 million.2 However, by the end of the 1980s, the peak birth rate, and hence the rate of population growth, had passed, and the country began a rapid decline in the birth rate, which some authors call the fastest in the world3.
On the one hand, this is due to factors such as increased urbanisation, increased female literacy and reduced child mortality, which have contributed to a decline in the birth rate worldwide.4 On the other hand, the decline in the birth rate in Iran was strongly influenced by the family planning program introduced in 1989.
In the early to mid-1980s, the Iranian authorities favored high birth rates and encouraged early marriages. Also, during the long war with Iraq (1980 - 1988), older couples gave birth to more children, fearing the death of their sons in the war. The increase in the birth rate (as well as a noticeable improvement in birth registration) was also influenced by ... Read more