V. M. VISHNEV
Kyiv National University named after V. I. Abramovich. Taras Shevchenko
Keywords: Republic of Korea, North Korea, 2013 crisis on the Korean peninsula, "nuclear domino", extended deterrence guarantees
The latest crisis on the Korean peninsula in March-April 2013, caused by new missile and nuclear weapons tests in the DPRK and large-scale US-South Korean maneuvers in the Yellow Sea , led to a noticeable change in sentiment in South Korea regarding the acquisition of nuclear weapons.
Previously, this topic was taboo in the country's political circles. It was addressed only by some marginal figures, such as the right-wing conservative Kim Dae-jung, who spoke in 2011 in the newspaper "Chosop ilbo" with a call for mastering the nuclear status . However, after the third nuclear test in North Korea in February 2013, this issue has become a major topic of political debate in South Korea. Even deputies from the inner circle of the newly elected President Park Geun-hye say that "Seoul cannot afford to defend itself only with a stone from a neighboring rogue state armed with a submachine gun" .
TO BE OR NOT TO BE?
American experts consider their own security concerns, technological capabilities, and political will to be among the most important factors that motivate states to make decisions about developing nuclear weapons . The Republic of Korea( ROK), Japan and Taiwan have sufficient economic, scientific and technical capabilities to develop nuclear weapons in the shortest possible time. At the same time, they feel a threat to national security from the new nuclear power, the DPRK, as well as China's claims to regional dominance.
Thus, K. Campbell, R. Einhorn, and M. Rice noted in the early 2000s that the non-nuclear states of Northeast Asia (NEA) were on the verge of making a decision to create nuclear weapons due to uncertainty about the reliability of Washington's guarantees in the event of a nuclear confrontation . The main qu ... Read more